Trump Making America Great Again

 Video: Fareed's Take: Trump's Revolution in foreign policy

Fareed summarises Trump's turnarounds in foreign policy - putting up trade barriers, antagonising allies, and cosying up to enemies for about 2 minutes.

What is interesting is that he starts by quoting Singapore's Ministers, that the US has "changed from Liberator, to Great Disruptor, to a landlord seeking rent", and "The US is no longer prepared to underwrite the global order. This makes the international environment far less orderly and predictable."

Biden suspends campaign for re-election

So after pressure from Democratic leaders and when presented with polling results that strongly suggests that he had no "path to victory", Joe Biden suspended his campaign and endorse his VP, Kamala Harris as the Democratic Candidate for President in the 2024 election.

Contrast this to Trump's attempt to cling onto power after the 2020 election, and claimed that the election was fraudulent, and that the Presidency was stolen from him, and instigating a mob to storm the Capital on Jan 6, 2021.

Biden addresses his decision to suspend his bid for re-election.

Wargaming China's Invasion of Taiwan

 Video: Why US Airpower will save Taiwan:

 

What is the Belt and Road Initiative REALLY about?

Megaprojects explains the Belt and Road Initiative:

This is a rather comprehensive video explaining China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The BRI is the initiative of Xi Jinping, announced in 2013. Prior to that, China's guiding principle was from Deng Xiaoping: "Hide your Strength and Bide your time."

Apparently, when Xi took over, he decided that the time to hide your strength and bide your time was over; that China's time to shine has arrived; that China was ready to take to the stage as a world leader, and to displace the current world leader.

US strategy vis-a-vis China

The video above is a podcast with John Mearsheimer, the guest, explaining why China would not invade Taiwan.

In the first 2 minutes or so, John has to explain to Lex (the host) what "amphibious operations are difficult" mean. Lex is incredulous, as he asked (0:32) "So geography still has a role to play in the 21st century?"

Yes, Lex. Geography is still important,

Singapore to acquire 8 more F-35B fighter jets, growing fleet to 12

The Singapore Armed Forces will also upgrade its training with virtual reality technology and a new digital range, as part of its 2040 vision.

Davina Tham

24 Feb 2023 

SINGAPORE: The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) will acquire another eight F-35B fighter jets, growing its incoming fleet of the fifth-generation fighters to 12.

Singapore will take delivery of the eight jets from US manufacturer Lockheed Martin "by the end of the decade", Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said in Parliament on Friday (Feb 24).

In 2019, Singapore announced the acquisition of an initial four F-35Bs, which are on track for delivery by 2026. The purchase was worth an estimated US$2.75 billion, according to a US government press release.

New American Century

With the fall the of the Soviet Union, the US became the sole superpower and without a rival to compete and challenge the US started to reduce its military investments... until Sept 11 2001.

NATO was losing relevance, Trump was trying to extricate the US from its commitments to NATO, and so were other members of NATO... until Feb 24, 2022.

[Video: Can the US continue to be the Police of the World - Visual Politics EN]

The Russo-Ukraine War and the (Cautionary) Lessons for China

This video below is a panel discussion on how China is reacting to and learning from the Russo-Ukraine War.

The video starts with the question: Is China ok with this war?

One naive view is that they are. That China has Russia's back, and this is fine with China. 

Vexation without representation - or why we should be allowed to vote in US elections.

When the US revolted against the British and fought for their independence, one of their rally calls was "No taxation, without representation". Briefly, as colonies of the British Empire, the colonists were required to pay taxes to the British, but they were not represented in the British Parliament.

The US colonists were upset that the British could make decisions and policies that affected the colonies, and that they had no say (no representation) to protect their interests. Hence the revolt.

On China and the Pacific Century

China has the second largest economy after the US, and is expected to be the largest economy in a few years.

Meanwhile:

As the 4 Asian Tigers grew, and as China emerged onto the global stage as a global economic player, soothsayers and prophets predicted the inevitable "Asian Century".

Subsequently, this gave way to the "Rise of China".

Deng Xiaoping didn't believe in the Asian Century. He didn't believe it would ever be.

Deng is quoted to have said, 

"Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership."

Denying (Cancelling?) Joe Biden Communion

 From a newsletter:

4. Pope Francis, above, warned conservative U.S. bishops to back down from their push to deny communion to politicians supportive of abortion rights.

That includes President Biden, the first Roman Catholic to occupy the Oval Office in 60 years.

Despite the Vatican’s remarkably public stop sign, the bishops will most likely force a debate this week. The effort could shatter their facade of unity with Rome and set what church historians consider a dangerous precedent for bishops’ conferences across the globe.

Trump - Gump or Chump?

 

This video tries to present Trump's 4 years with his achievements and failures.

Do you agree?

First, let's call a spade a spade. This is (or was) the "Trump Presidency", not the Trump Administration. Because calling what they did over four years, "administration" is arguable and generous. Just consider the turnover of the Cabinet members (not covered in the video, because rightly, it is not usually considered an achievement or failure, but is indicative or symptomatic of a dysfunctional... "administration". Or "Dysadministration".) So it is NOT in question that Trump was the 45th POTUS. So call it the Trump Presidency. "Trump Administration"? Laughable. Arguable. Debatable. But I will let it pass as a customary nomenclature rather than an objective and accurate descriptor. 

Second, some of the achievements or failures are subject to the judgement of history and/or are multifaceted and would depend on the perspective and the lens thru which it should (or would) be seen. For example, was Trump's confrontation with China good or bad? Achievement or Failure. It's not easy to say at this point in time/history. Or you might say, it depends on your perspective. US perspective? Even so, that depends on the long term objectives and US's role in the unfolding history. If the US is on the decline (from the perspective of history) and China is in ascendency, then though Trump was not ready to concede the 2020 election weeks after the result was obvious, he readily ceded US global leadership (in some/many aspects) to China. 

Third and finally, this video assesses Trump's "achievements" and "failures" as if this presidency's endeavours were thought out and thought through. That the achievements are intentional, and failures were just badly executed, unfortunately timed, or undermined by opponents or historical events. That is generous. The evidence suggests that Trump "Forrest Gump" his way to the Presidency, and his achievements. As for his failures, they can all be traced back to his lack of understanding, interests, and intellect. Or his bias/prejudices. 

And some of the achievements in this video were wrongly attributed to him. Getting to pick 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices was due to the machinations of Mitch McConnell more than the astuteness of Trump. 

It may be too soon, but eventually, history will ask, "President Donald Trump - [Forrest] Gump or Chump?" Or maybe some are already asking. Or some believe they already know the answer.

[Edit/ Addendum: From a Washington Post newsletter (The Daily 202), of 25 Nov:

Trump will be the first president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to leave office with fewer Americans employed than when he started. More problematic is that, as a lame-duck, Trump is aggressively trying to box in his successor with new rules, regulations and orders that are designed to tie the hands of the incoming administration.

The federal budget deficit was $3.1 trillion in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, by far the biggest one-year gap in U.S. history. Trump promised as a candidate in 2016 to eliminate the national debt over eight years. When he took office, the debt was $14.4 trillion. It now stands at $21.1 trillion.

While Trump has lost in the court of law, he was won to some degree in the court of conservative public opinion. By baselessly sowing doubt in the integrity of the results, and with the complicit consent of Republican lawmakers who stayed silent for so long, Trump is convincing millions of gullible supporters that his successor is somehow not legitimate. This will make it harder for Biden, who strives to be a healer, to bind the national wounds into which Trump has been rubbing salt these past four years.

]

US Democracy - fundamental assumptions. Fundamentally flawed.

 

Prelude to war

Pure, Simple (or Simplistic) Democracy. Consider that this - DEMOCRACY - is a Sacred Cow. It cannot be questioned. The process cannot be questioned. The System cannot be questioned. Yes, this system threw up a Donald Trump in 2016. But this system also threw him out in 2020. The system WORKS!

Tell yourself that. Convince yourself that this is DEMOCRACY WORKING. This is the age of disinformation. And there is no greater disinformation and deception than to see something, and BELIEVE THE VERY OPPOSITE OF WHAT YOU ARE SEEING.

The simple matter is if democracy works as advertised, then ok, maybe people are tired of slick politicians and Washington insiders, and are sold on the idea of an outsider, a maverick, someone who will rock the boat and get the rats off the boat. So 2016 - Trump. Besides Clinton was *bleargh!* Trump won? Understandable really.

Litigating Democracy

In the aftermath of his defeat, Trump is alleging, without any evidence, that Biden has stolen this election from him.

And his lawyers are filing lawsuits in various courts to challenge ballot counting, or to stop the process of ballot counting, or to allege impropriety or illegality.

And his supporters believe him.

The truth is, Trump has lost.

He's just playing a role that 71 million voters (his supporters) require.

If the Democrats are so clever as to win the Presidency fraudulently, why didn't they win the Senate as well? If the Democrats could control the outcome of the election, in what universe would they allow Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham to win and win so comfortably?

If the Democrats had the power to control to election, why did they lose seats in the lower House (House of Representatives)?

Democracy - the worst form of government

 So I believed the polls.

For two reasons. One, I believed the pollsters were embarrassed by their "failure" in 2016, had analysed their errors, and would have adjusted for their mistakes.

So this time around, they should be better right?

Their polling results were worse.

If they were off in 2016, they were off even more in 2020. Pollsters just couldn't explain or account for Trump.

The other reason I believe the polls was because it was the reasonable and rational thing to do. The fact that I was wrong to believe the polls suggests that 

a) it was not reasonable

b) it was not rational

c) it is not reasonable to believe that people will act reasonably

d) it is not rational to expect people to act rationally

e) it is not reasonable to believe people will act rationally

f) it is not rational to expect people to behave (or vote) reasonably.

Or maybe Democracy is playing a different game with different rules.

Democracy sucks (well, US-style democracy)

 In my last post I stated my "wish list":

So here's my wish list.

1) Biden takes Arizona (11), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), and Texas (38). This will be my Bingo card. I expect I will be disappointed by Texas and Georgia. Maybe even more.

2) Graham loses his Senate seat. Again, with a 77% chance of him winning, this is a wish, more than a hope. I am almost sure to be disappointed.

3) And I would like to see Mitch ditched. But he has a 96% chance of being re-elected. So, doubt it will happen. But it's on my wish list.

As at midnight of the 5 Nov (Thursday morning), Biden has won Arizona. 

Democracy (At least US Democracy) is a spectator sport

I have been too engrossed with the US Presidential Election.

It is a spectator sport. And highly engrossing. Almost as engrossing as a WWE matchup.

I had intended to post some comments after our GE in July. 

The results were very interesting. I read the various commentaries and post-mortems by pro- and anti-PAP pundits. 

And I'm trying to distill my thoughts.

The question everyone is thinking about is... what does the Singapore Voter want.

Democracy or Dictatorship

 

"Democracy or dictatorship" is a logical fallacy offering a forced and false dichotomy.

Some thoughts of the US Presidential Elections 2020

As of this writing, the Democratic candidates are down to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Biden has a lead and is likely to hold the lead and win the nomination. Which will be a sad thing. But understandable.

Politics are conservative.

Until it is not.