The People's Action Party (PAP) has been the dominant political party in Singapore since the country gained independence in 1965. However, like any political party, there are several factors and scenarios that could lead to the PAP losing a general election in Singapore. Here are some key factors that could contribute to such an outcome:
Economic Downturn: A significant economic downturn or recession could lead to voter dissatisfaction with the PAP, as they have long been associated with Singapore's economic success. If the economy falters, voters may be more inclined to consider alternative parties.
It is often quoted that a young person who is not a liberal (or progressive) has no heart. And an older person who is not a conservative, has no head (brains).
The Singapore version of this, if one exists is that a young voter who is not pro-opposition (or anti-PAP) has no heart. And an old voter who is not pro-PAP has no head.
And so we find ourselves with three candidates for POTROS. I know. We don't call our President, POTROS for short, like the US calls theirs POTUS (President of the United States). But we are the country that LOVES acronyms - CPF, HDB, PIE, BTO, CTE, COE, MOE, CMPD, CPIB, etc.
1) Tan Kin Lian - "Vote for him so he doesn't lose his deposit!"
2) Ng Kok Song - "Vote for him so we can have an Istana Wedding!"
3) Tharman Shanmugaratnam - "Vote for him so another Indian Minister can stay in a Govt bungalow... for free! (making him luckier than Vivian and Shanmugam!)"
Kopi-O Kok Song - a meme from social media associated (by netizens) with one of the candidates.
When the US revolted against the British and fought for their independence, one of their rally calls was "No taxation, without representation". Briefly, as colonies of the British Empire, the colonists were required to pay taxes to the British, but they were not represented in the British Parliament.
The US colonists were upset that the British could make decisions and policies that affected the colonies, and that they had no say (no representation) to protect their interests. Hence the revolt.
The presumptive PM-apparent/PM in waiting/PM designate Mr Heng Swee Keat announced that he would not be taking up the PMship after all, and would rather another younger person be the PM-designate. His reason, or his publicly stated reason was that he was 60 years old this year, and by the time the Covid-19 crisis was settled he would be close to his mid-60s. He would have limited time to provide leadership and stability for Singapore.
In other words, he had already been selected as the next PM of Singapore. If he had just coasted along, taking things one day at a time, and just making sure that he doesn't screw up big time, he would be Singapore's 4th PM.
Pure, Simple (or Simplistic) Democracy. Consider that this - DEMOCRACY - is a Sacred Cow. It cannot be questioned. The process cannot be questioned. The System cannot be questioned. Yes, this system threw up a Donald Trump in 2016. But this system also threw him out in 2020. The system WORKS!
Tell yourself that. Convince yourself that this is DEMOCRACY WORKING. This is the age of disinformation. And there is no greater disinformation and deception than to see something, and BELIEVE THE VERY OPPOSITE OF WHAT YOU ARE SEEING.
The simple matter is if democracy works as advertised, then ok, maybe people are tired of slick politicians and Washington insiders, and are sold on the idea of an outsider, a maverick, someone who will rock the boat and get the rats off the boat. So 2016 - Trump. Besides Clinton was *bleargh!* Trump won? Understandable really.
In the aftermath of his defeat, Trump is alleging, without any evidence, that Biden has stolen this election from him.
And his lawyers are filing lawsuits in various courts to challenge ballot counting, or to stop the process of ballot counting, or to allege impropriety or illegality.
And his supporters believe him.
The truth is, Trump has lost.
He's just playing a role that 71 million voters (his supporters) require.
If the Democrats are so clever as to win the Presidency fraudulently, why didn't they win the Senate as well? If the Democrats could control the outcome of the election, in what universe would they allow Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham to win and win so comfortably?
If the Democrats had the power to control to election, why did they lose seats in the lower House (House of Representatives)?
For two reasons. One, I believed the pollsters were embarrassed by their "failure" in 2016, had analysed their errors, and would have adjusted for their mistakes.
The other reason I believe the polls was because it was the reasonable and rational thing to do. The fact that I was wrong to believe the polls suggests that
a) it was not reasonable
b) it was not rational
c) it is not reasonable to believe that people will act reasonably
d) it is not rational to expect people to act rationally
e) it is not reasonable to believe people will act rationally
f) it is not rational to expect people to behave (or vote) reasonably.
Or maybe Democracy is playing a different game with different rules.
1) Biden takes Arizona (11), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), and Texas (38). This will be my Bingo card. I expect I will be disappointed by Texas and Georgia. Maybe even more.
2) Graham loses his Senate seat. Again, with a 77% chance of him winning, this is a wish, more than a hope. I am almost sure to be disappointed.
3) And I would like to see Mitch ditched. But he has a 96% chance of being re-elected. So, doubt it will happen. But it's on my wish list.
As at midnight of the 5 Nov (Thursday morning), Biden has won Arizona.
So it occurred to me that 29 years ago, Low Thia Khiang told the Hougang voters: "WA SI TEOCHEW NANG!" (I am a Teochew!) at one (or more) of his rallies.
And he snatched Hougang from the PAP.
Twenty-nine years later, the Workers Party couldn't even send a rep to the Chinese debate.
The PAP will win the election. The question is, how will the opposition do?
And by "opposition" we realistically mean, Workers Party. All the other political parties are jokes at worst, and delusions at best.
Maybe Progress Singapore Party and Tan Cheng Bock can pull off a surprise. But even that may be a miracle. I'll explain later.
If you subscribe to the "pendulum" theory of political fortunes, that voters vote one way, then swing over to the other side, in 2011, the PAP got 60% of the vote. Then in 2015, it got 70% of the votes. In this blog, I predicted in 2015 that the PAP vote share for the next election (GE 2020) would fall. based simply on this "pedulum" theory.
“I recognise that the controversy over my candidacy has eclipsed the core issues of what this election should be about — Singapore’s future and the difficult steps we have to take to recover from Covid-19,” Mr Lim wrote. “The controversy has also caused intense pain and stress for my family. I cannot put my family through this,” he added. “I thank the party for giving me this opportunity to serve.”
In accepting Mr Lim’s withdrawal, Mr Lee [PM] said that the controversy over his candidature was unfortunate. “Ideally, there would have been a fair and deliberate consideration of these allegations. Unfortunately, the nature of the campaign is such that we do not have time for a thorough investigation,” Mr Lee said in his reply to Mr Lim. “The allegations spread like wildfire online, eclipsing the serious life and death issues we must grapple with,” Mr Lee, who is also the prime minister, added.