I have been too engrossed with the US Presidential Election.
It is a spectator sport. And highly engrossing. Almost as engrossing as a WWE matchup.
I had intended to post some comments after our GE in July.
The results were very interesting. I read the various commentaries and post-mortems by pro- and anti-PAP pundits.
And I'm trying to distill my thoughts.
The question everyone is thinking about is... what does the Singapore Voter want.
I am a slow thinker and apparently an even slower writer.
So by the time my ideas have percolated into a coherent stream, maybe nobody will be interested in my analyses.
But as a believer in democracy - at least the amended democracy that is Singapore Democracy, or what some foreign institutes call a "flawed democracy", I believe Singaporeans chose wisely, and sent a signal to the government with their votes.
[The 2019 Democracy Index ranks SG at 75th place, tied with HK. Side note/comment. If we are tied with HK, we are tied in scores but are very different. Because HKers have to FIGHT for their rights and for Democracy, they are more aware and more politically active. And I would hazard a guess that they are more concerned about democracy. Singaporeans, by contrast, just had their GE in July, and voted freely and sent in another GRC of opposition MPs. We have (flawed) democracy and is in no danger of losing it. Not the same in HK.]
Meanwhile the flawed democracy that is the US is putting on the Best Show in a Pandemic.
There is the incumbent, incompetent POTUS with delusion of competency
There is the gaffe-prone, good-ole-hometown-boy made good with his folksy demeanour, "safe" challenger who will bring back normalcy.
There is a global pandemic that is raging uncontrolled through the country (U.S.) making it the leading nation with over 9 million cases and 230,000 deaths (as at 30 Oct).
A Supreme Court (SCOTUS) Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, passed away less than 2 months before the election, and she wanted the winner of the Election to nominate her replacement.
The incumbent POTUS and the Senate Majority Leader moved quickly to fill the vacancy on the SCOTUS despite the Senate Majority Leader (Republican Mitch McConnell) deliberately delaying the confirmation hearing of the last nominee (Merrick Garland) by President Barack Obama who was trying to fill a vacancy in March 2016, left by the passing of Justice Antonin Scalia. McConnell's justification was that with less than a year left in Obama's presidency, it was not ethical to let an outgoing president nominate someone to SCOTUS.
Then POTUS nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the SCOTUS even BEFORE Ruth Bader Ginsburg was buried, less than 2 months before the election.
And the Senate Republicans were just fine with that.McConnell even vowed that he would do everything to ensure that the candidate would be confirmed by Election Day.
The Rose Garden event where Barrett was presented as the candidate for SCOTUS was a super-spreader event when more than 20 people were infected with the coronavirus.
POTUS was also infected and subsequently hospitalised at Walter Reed Army Medical Centre. Also, FLOTUS and their son were found to be infected.
Meanwhile the Senate Republicans push through the confirmation of Barrett in record time, ignoring other pressing matters like the Covid19 Relief Bill. After the Senate confirmed Barrett to the Supreme Court along party lines, the Senate was adjoined without considering the Relief Bill, leaving Americans in limbo and without any relief from the hardships that Covid had visited upon them.
POTUS's actions have led to many rebukes:
“Mr. Trump’s lawless, amoral and dishonorable ethos makes a mockery of the democratic accountability that is fostered through respect for law and our constitutional principles,” they write in an open letter today explaining their decision to endorse Joe Biden. “He has overtly refused to honor the independence of the judiciary, failed to acknowledge the authority of Congress and the corresponding constraints imposed on a president by the separation of powers, demonized the free press that speaks truth to power, and undermined due process and the fair administration of justice by relentlessly politicizing the investigation and enforcement of the criminal law.”
The signatories are Peter Keisler, Robert Kruger, Alan Charles Raul and J. Michael Shepherd, who were all appointed by Reagan to be associate White House counsels, as well as Nicholas Rostow, who was the legal adviser to the National Security Council. Raul and Rostow also served under President George H.W. Bush.
“Chanting ‘lock him (or her) up’ or ‘enemy of the people’ are statements we could not have imagined Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush or George W. Bush – or any president before this one – uttering about a political opponent or about some of our leading news organizations,” they write. “Those ugly sentiments are the very antithesis of American ideals and echo the authoritarian tyrants that every previous president would have challenged.”
The incumbent had packed the SCOTUS because he anticipated that he would lose the election and his strategy would be to raise challenges for any possible reasons he could manufacture. And he expected the Justices he nominated, and confirmed by the Republican-controlled Senate to side with his legal challenges. He hinted as much. "Hinted" too mild? "Confessed" more apropos?
And the White House had ANOTHER Covid19 outbreak - aides and staff of the Vice President were found to be infected.
POTUS, meanwhile continued to lie that the pandemic was under control, or was going to be under control, or that a vaccine was going to be ready soon, and that the economy was going great, and Americans were better off than they had ever been.
After his encounter with Covid, POTUS got himself cleared to travel and in a desperate attempt to rescue his re-election bid, he had rallies where people gathered in huge crowds with no masks (mostly) and with no social distancing. Studies have found that these rallies are the source of subsequent infection spikes.
Meanwhile, those who are concerned about voting in person during a pandemic has been voting by mail, and to avoid the crowds expected on Election Day (3 Nov), some have been voting early. In Texas, more than 9 million people have voted early, which is more than ALL the votes in Texas in 2016.
Anyway, the point is the incumbent POTUS is incompetent, undignified, narcissistic, mendacious, and a bigot. His approval rating has NEVER in his 4 years in office ever broke 50%.
There are polls that suggests that Joe Biden, the challenger will beat Trump. There are many polls and surveys that suggests that Biden's support and the opposition to Trump will give the Presidency to Biden.
Of course, in 2016, it was also predicted by polls and surveys that Hilary Clinton would defeat Trump by a comfortable margin.
Instead, Trump won.
So, there is a concern that history may repeat itself. To cut to the chase, the question is, can you trust the polls?
If the US elections are of any concern to you, then you will have to decide if the polls can be trusted.
Or if you want to trust what they are telling you.
I believe that Trump's Presidency was a fluke. A confluence of factors that handed him the presidency, and that he has made a mess of things with his incompetence. And his incompetence and other shortcomings are plain for all to see, except those blind enough to think the world of him.
And I believe (or hope) that those people are in the minority.
And that the majority of people agree that Trump has been bad for the US.
And according to the 13 Keys to the White House, Trump will lose.
So as far as I'm concerned, Biden will win and Trump will lose.
I may be disappointed.
For me the bigger question is, what states will Biden win? In the video below, there are 11 states that are "toss-ups" - could go either to Trump or Biden.
By at 1:23 in the video, the polling already shows that Biden is very likely to get 232 of the electoral college votes. A candidate needs to get 270 votes to win the presidency. So Biden at this point just needs to secure another 38 votes to win.
Assuming all those states that supports him holds true.
By 3:06, we see that Biden is ahead in 8 toss-up states, and the 3 which he has the best chance (greatest lead) to win are Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada. These 3 states have 10, 10, and 6 votes. He wins these 3 states, he would have 26 votes towards to 38 more he needs to get to 270 votes.
Pennsylvania is the next state where he has a good lead, and that has 20 votes. He wins Pennsylvania, he gets the presidency.
But... if he flips Texas, he would get 38 votes, which alone is enough to win him the presidency.
The statistics suggests (strongly) that this would not happen. At least not in this election. BUT... it might.
In Texas, over 9 million people have already voted. And early voters tend to be Democrats. So...
In other words, for me it is practically a given (setting myself up for disappointment) that Biden wins. For me, it is not enough that he wins, but that he also flips Texas.
And Arizona.
And Florida.
Anything less, for me, would be disappointing.
Like I said, I'm setting myself up for disappointment.
This election is also for for 35 senators, and the House of Representatives (who serve 2 year terms, so elections every 2 years for the 435 seats).
One of the Republican Senators up for re-election is Lindsay Graham, who as Chair of the Judiciary Committee leads the confirmation hearing of any nominee to the SCOTUS. He is on record as saying that the president in his final year of office should not be allowed to nominate a candidate to the Supreme Court. That it should be left to the winning candidate of the Presidential Election to choose the next Supreme Court Justice.
He said that in 2016, and he hypocritically went back on his word.
His Senatorial seat was supposed to be 'safe'. But after his hypocrisy and other factors, he has been losing support. And his challenger has out-raised Graham in election funding, and outspending him in advertising. BUT, the incumbent still has a 77% chance of winning.
In Kentucky where McConnell is facing re-election, he has a 96% chance of winning. So "Ditch Mitch" campaign may not work out.
The good news is that the Democrats have a better than even chance of taking control of the Senate.
So here's my wish list.
1) Biden takes Arizona (11), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), and Texas (38). This will be my Bingo card. I expect I will be disappointed by Texas and Georgia. Maybe even more.
2) Graham loses his Senate seat. Again, with a 77% chance of him winning, this is a wish, more than a hope. I am almost sure to be disappointed.
3) And I would like to see Mitch ditched. But he has a 96% chance of being re-elected. So, doubt it will happen. But it's on my wish list.
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