What if... Malaysia and Singapore goes to war?

[Edited/Amended in Jan 2024.

Yes, it is incongruous that I "refresh" this post just as Johor and Singpaore are looking forward to more cooperation and working towards passport-free travel between Johor and Singapore. But yes, I am hopeful for a "common market" for Johor and Singapore. This post is just a reaction to the video from a few years back.]

There is this speculative video on YouTube:

The video assumes that for whatever reason, and in whatever scenario, diplomacy has broken down, and war has been declared. This is an attempt to argue against the assumptions. 

1) Singapore is not worth conquering. 

Most invasions/occupations are for tangible benefits - land, oil, natural resources, etc. Singapore has limited land. Malaysia has LOTS of land (compared to SG). They don't need SG's land. SG has NO NATURAL RESOURCES. No gold. No oil. We even have to import SAND! But, you might say, SG is richer than MY! So wouldn't MY want to take those riches? 

But... the source of SG's wealth CANNOT be taken. It is intangible. 

Secrets of Singapore's Success - Part 1

Ask most Singaporeans about the one critical factor for Singapore's success, and many (if not all) would probably answer: Lee Kuan Yew.

But THAT is a simplified answer for a complex answer. Because LKY did a lot of things. 

The reason people asks for the "Secrets to Singapore's Success" is because they (might) want to replicate Singapore's success. "LKY" is not a good answer, because they can't have LKY. 

Not because we are selfish and don't want to share LKY. But because he's dead.

Anyway, someone asked our Ambassador-at-large, Tommy Koh (formerly our representative at the UN) what was the secret of Singapore's success.

He diplomatically sidestepped the question, then asked 50 of Singapore's leaders in the civil service, past and present, for their take on it, compiled their essays into a book, and made bank!

Singapore's Global City Strategy - From SG History Unauthorised.

From SG History: Rajaratnam's vision of Singapore as a Global City

From the IPS Singapore Perspective 2022 video:

How did Singapore, the "Accidental Country" become the Nation that it is today?

On China and the Pacific Century

China has the second largest economy after the US, and is expected to be the largest economy in a few years.

Meanwhile:

As the 4 Asian Tigers grew, and as China emerged onto the global stage as a global economic player, soothsayers and prophets predicted the inevitable "Asian Century".

Subsequently, this gave way to the "Rise of China".

Deng Xiaoping didn't believe in the Asian Century. He didn't believe it would ever be.

Deng is quoted to have said, 

"Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership."

Home

"Home" (1998) written by Dick Lee, and sung by Kit Chan is a perennial favourite for Singaporeans.

Why?

Singaporeans like "Home" because we are NOT "rah-rah sis-boom-bah" jingoists. 

Mandating Vaccination

Will the Singapore Government do that?

Well, it has in the past.

In 1962, the Singapore government passed a law making Diphtheria immunisation mandatory for children under 1. 

Prior to that, diphtheria imunisation had been available for 12 years and parents could voluntarily choose to immunise their child. 

However, the take-up rate was low and not enough to protect our children. 

And diphtheria was killing our children. I believe the fatality rate was about 5% of those infected. 

And it was preventable!

And the immunisation was free!

So, driven to desperation, when moral suasion and soft sell didn't work, the Singapore government resorted to legislating the problem away.

Then.

60 years later... today?

I've seen some comments on social media where anti-vaxxers or the vaccine-hesitant had said, if the govt is so sure about the safety of the vaccine and the benefits, then why don't they make it mandatory? 

They seem to be taunting the govt to act by decree.

Singapore's Success - 50 Shades of Great?

I saw a book, "Fifty Secrets of Singapore's Success" which is a collection of 50 essays by prominent Singaporeans (I guess), and edited by Tommy Koh.

The book was an idea by Tommy Koh. He was asked what was the secret of Singapore's success by some undergrads in the US and Mexico. And (not having an easy answer then) he said that there was not one single secret, but he will think about it (and ask other smarter people) and maybe write a book (or edit one).

A diplomat, tactful, and can think on his feet. I really admire Tommy Koh. 

Then, recently, I saw this video: "15 Incredibly Smart Things Singapore Got Right":

The Year of the Rat - for Malaysia

In the aftermath of the historic 2018 Malaysian General Election that swept UMNO out of power after 60 years, and brought in fresh hope in the Hope Alliance that is Pakatan Harapan (PH), this piece pointed out how fragile a coalition government is, and offered some scenarios as to the challenges this fragile coalition could face.

One of the scenarios suggested was this:

Or Dr M, after ensuring that Najib has been dethroned from UMNO's leadership, may lead Bersatu back to UMNO. Then BN (with Bersatu) could ally with PAS, and based on the current numbers, they would have 109 seats. They just need 3 more seats for BN to be back in power. This could be from defecting PKR or Amanah MPs (DAP would be very unlikely), or the independents, or STAR, or Warisan.

Thoughts on the US 4th of July Parade

Did you see this news?

With tanks and flyovers, Trump celebrates military in July 4 salute

05 July, 2019

WASHINGTON — With US fighter jets flying overhead, United States President Donald Trump praised the military and reveled in a show of pomp and patriotism on Thursday (July 4) in a celebration of Independence Day that critics accused him of turning into a political event...

A little bit of crystal ball gazing

What's going to happen next?

Well, Heng Swee Keat will be the next PM of Singapore.

And Tan Cheng Bock has announced that he is coming out of political retirement.

But that's all just the near future. And these are just small local details that will not change the BIG PICTURE.

Singapore and Switzerland - a comparison

[This post was first drafted in 2015. So the figures are a little outdated, but updating them may simply be redundant for the argument. At least I assume so. Feel free to prove me wrong.]

You may recall at one point our former PM Goh Chok Tong promised/claimed that Singapore will reach Swiss Standard of Living. I checked. He made the "prediction" in 1984 that we would reach Swiss 1984 Standard of living by 1999. We made in in 2000. Just off by a year.

But there are still... sceptics.

Who are able to provide anecdotal or cherry-picked data to make their point.

This is not a rebuttal of their point, or points. This is a presentation of... the wider picture.

"We're not destroying the Earth..."

"... The Earth is Destroying us!"

A different perspective.


The video provides an interesting perspective.

In the long, no, SHORT history of humans on Earth, we were mostly in an Ice Age.

Living next door to an imbecile

In 1991, Malaysia in an abundance of diplomacy, political rectitude, prudence, maturity and wisdom decided on an operation formally called "Malindo Darasa". The airborne assault exercise was codenamed "Pukul Habis".

It was, from various opinions, analysis, and assessment, an obvious and asinine attempt to test the new SG government and PM (Goh Chok Tong had just taken over from LKY).

A brief comparison of race politics in Malaysia and Singapore:

[A post I started writing in August 2018]

A brief comparison of race politics in Malaysia and Singapore:

Circa 1965 "Malay Malaysia" from KL. "Malaysian Malaysia" from SG/PAP. Singapore evicted from the the Federation.
1970: President Yusof Ishak pass away. There would be no Malay President for Singapore over the next 47 years.
1971: Malaysia implements the New Economic Policy/Bumiputera policy.
1972: Gerakan, a predominantly Chinese political party that won the most seats in Penang, was brought into the Alliance, which later became the Barisan Nasional (BN), the ruling coalition of ethnic political parties. BN includes the MCA, MIC, and of course UMNO.

Thoughts on the NDR 2018

I had my wish list for the NDR.

China-US Trade War

For the US-China trade war, one potential PM-to-be had spoken about it. But he was speaking at the American Chamber of Commerce, and his message was for the Americans:

"Your choice of where you put your investment, your choice of where you make those strategic moves for your company, will cumulatively build up a picture of what the US stands for in this region… The choice you will make individually will collectively inform Washington where their priorities will be."

There was no message for Singaporeans.

The better message was from Bilahari Kausikan.  But his message was more on the idea of a Singaporean identity, and the Singapore Reality resisting the imposition of the Chinese (China) framework and identity on Singapore:

Water, Water, Everywhere...

While most Singaporeans defended SG against "threats" by Mahathir to review the water agreement or "suggestions" by the Chief Minister of Johor to re-price water, there were some Singaporeans who tried to be ... "reasonable" (to be generous) or were downright "disloyal" (from their comments).

This post addresses the implied question from the reasonable, or faithless, Singaporeans:

Why is Singapore such an arsehole when it comes to the water agreement with Malaysia?

There is so much uninformed comments on FB regarding this. But then again, that's one of the two things the internet is for - Uninformed comment. (The other thing of course is Porn, but that's another story).

Before you comment on anything related to the water agreements, first know your history. A quick primer would be Water Talks.

If you have not read it, I GUARANTEE you at some point you will make an ass of yourself. Those who do not know history, will inevitably make an ass of themselves when they try to be clever or original. Or think they have a solution that no one else had ever thought of.

Yes, you might dismiss it as pure propaganda on the part of Singapore (cos, faithless Singaporeans), but know that Malaysia NEVER rebutted the facts within the booklet. Mahathir was of course discombobulated, and said something about Singapore not being "nice" to publicised his "love letters".

Know also that recently, the Crown Prince of Johor has called SG a good neighbour and friend. Why? This article shows how we have been friends. And it shows that accusations that we were profiteering from supplying water to Johor is patently false. If the price were too high, would they buy more than they had contracted to? If the price is too high, shouldn't they find alternative options?

And for a summary (if I may toot my own horn or blogpost), I would suggest this blogpost. "Sui Pian" also has my speculation as to why MY kept shifting the goal posts, and why MY is losing money on the water agreement.

The other shoe drops - a $4 Bata sandal

Bata Sandals, RM11.99, Mahathir's choice.

I had mixed feelings when Pakatan Harapan won, and Mahathir became PM of Malaysia again.

I don't trust Mahathir.

But then again, I didn't think Najib could continue. Or should continue. He was bad for Malaysia.

I'm not sure that Mahathir is that much better. But people seem hopeful.

And Anwar is waiting in the wings.

Certainly Mahathir tried to assure sceptics that he was totally focused on getting the job done.

The two years later, Anwar takes over. So, hope.

Mahathir was supposed to be the "cleaner" - take out the Najib trash, start to clean up corruption, terminate bad contracts with China.

And Singapore.