The Year of the Rat - for Malaysia

In the aftermath of the historic 2018 Malaysian General Election that swept UMNO out of power after 60 years, and brought in fresh hope in the Hope Alliance that is Pakatan Harapan (PH), this piece pointed out how fragile a coalition government is, and offered some scenarios as to the challenges this fragile coalition could face.

One of the scenarios suggested was this:

Or Dr M, after ensuring that Najib has been dethroned from UMNO's leadership, may lead Bersatu back to UMNO. Then BN (with Bersatu) could ally with PAS, and based on the current numbers, they would have 109 seats. They just need 3 more seats for BN to be back in power. This could be from defecting PKR or Amanah MPs (DAP would be very unlikely), or the independents, or STAR, or Warisan.

Political pundits were always skeptical of Dr Mahathir's sincerity and trustworthiness, and expected him to renege on the deal to hand over power to Anwar. Or to flip the government.

And apparently it has happened. Other reports offer some details as to how this may be happening.

Dr Mahathir has decided that the Year of the Rat will be an auspicious year for him to do his thing.

He has over the last 18 months or so, consolidated and grown his Bersatu representation into 26 seats (he got some MPs to switch to Bersatu). The writing was clear to see even then:

Both Anwar and Mahathir are gathering their might to rule if they went their separate ways.
For Anwar, to have a new majority even if he has to dump Pribumi, along with DAP and Amanah who are in awe of Mahathir, by securing a different majority with Umno and PAS.
For Mahathir, to crush any pretensions of Anwar outflanking him in the Malay realm, by engineering his own queue of Umno leaders to Pribumi, in order to bolster the party’s count to compete with PKR’s 51.
To have a parliamentary majority even if they part company.

Bersatu with 26 seats, Umno with 39 seats, and PAS with 18 seats together has a solid block of 83 seats. But not enough for a new coalition. Add the seats held by Amanah, 11, and the new coalition is within striking distance of a majority with 94 seats.

The second report included 18 seats from the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (which was the Sarawak Barisan Nasional), and that puts the new coalition just into the majority with 112 seats. And there are rumours that there are defectors (from PH) in DAP and PKR. Those defectors can only strengthen Dr M's new coalition that will let him PM for another few years, and sideline Anwar again.

So this "coup" was not completely unexpected.

If you were a realist.

Or a cynic.