The Future of Covid19

Chinese experts "believe" (officially) that the epidemic will run its course and die out (just like SARS did) in April.

Whether they REALLY (medically/scientifically) believe that, or they are required OFFICIALLY to believe that, is arguable.

They may be right. Or they may be official.

This video provides a more medical/scientific consideration of the two scenarios (or three depending on how you understand the situation/their explanation.

The first possibility or outcome is the Official Chinese Expert's position - that this viral epidemic will run its course, kill off a few thousand people or so, and then die out due to the heroic and ruthless leadership of Xi Jinping (Official Narrative).

But other experts differ.

 I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus 

Dr. Robert Redfield

Director, CDC
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Feb. 13, 2020

 I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can't give a good number

Prof. Marc Lipsitch

Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 14, 2020

The second possibility is that it becomes endemic - like the cold virus. It comes. It goes. Sometimes people (usually the weaker or health-compromised) die. But it is never really eradicated (like SARS and MERS have been from human populations). One reason why this might be the most likely scenario is that this virus seems to be transmissible when the carrier is asymptomatic. So there will be transmission even then the person does not appear to be sick.

A subset of this possibility or the third possibility (in the video) is that Covid19 becomes seasonal. Like the flu. Each year, millions of people are infected, tens of thousands die each year, but we treat it like the flu - many people do not vaccinate for the flu even though there are vaccines for the flu. Problem is, it is an annual vaccination.

So we come to live with, and die with it. But we will likely develop some resistance to Covid19 over the years, and it may become slightly less infectious and less deadly, and be treated as a slightly more severe flu. However, our resistance or immunity is not permanent.

Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza... but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes.

So in the meantime, do feel free to panic.

[28 Mar Update:


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