Why the passionate support at Opposition Rallies don't translate into election victory for the Opposition

WP Rally (26/4/2025) Temasek JC

Opposition rallies during election (GE) campaigning tends to draw large crowds (video above). 

The PAP wins! Again. Ho-hum.

GE2025 results

6 May 2025

The question Singaporeans are asking is, "will the PAP ever lose control of Singapore?"

The PAP has had over 60 years of learning how to "hold onto power". Rightfully, and with (what some might call), "questionable" tactics and strategy.

GE2025 - Here we go again!

 

It is often quoted that a young person who is not a liberal (or progressive) has no heart. And an older person who is not a conservative, has no head (brains). 

The Singapore version of this, if one exists is that a young voter who is not pro-opposition (or anti-PAP) has no heart. And an old voter who is not pro-PAP has no head.

PE2023 results - President Tharman

 

The anti-climatic result of Presidential Election 2023 was a resounding mandate for Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

The Empire Strikes Back (Or PAP refers Pritam to the Public Prosecutor)

If WP taking Aljunied GRC, then Sengkang GRC was "A New Hope", this could be when the PAP strikes back. (For background, click on this link.)

The Committee of Privileges (COP) had completed its inquiry and recommended that Raeesah Khan be fined, and two of the WP leaders, Pritam Singh and Faisal Manap be referred to the Public Prosecutor for investigation as to possible perjury and contempt of Parliament. And Parliament has voted to accept the recommendations of the COP. 

However, "the report did not recommend any action towards WP chairman Sylvia Lim, in view of her voluntary assistance to the committee." 

Sylvia Lim took exception to this characterisation of her and spoke in clarification:

Basically she argued that she did not contradict Pritam's testimony, but had corroborated it (like a good team player). 

Khan and Singh

So the Committee of Privileges have called Raeesah Khan back. And even got her to undergo an psychiatric assessment. This was the news report:

Raeesah Khan stands by her evidence; psychiatrist says she did not have any disorder that would 'predispose' her to lying: COP report

So Khan had said that the WP leadership had advised her to continue to lie. Pritam Singh, WP sec-gen, and Leader of the Opposition had testified that she was not advised to continue to lie, and that she suffers from "disassociation", and would say things without thinking. Singh also said that he told Khan to take responsibility and ownership of the issue. Which he claims was his advice to her to tell the truth.

The other shoe drops...

Raeesah Khan testifies to privileges committee that WP leaders told her to keep to lie made in Parliament

• Speaking under oath, former MP Raeesah Khan said she was told by WP leaders to keep to a lie that she had made in Parliament 
• They also told her that if she and the party "could get away with it, there was no need to clarify the lie"
• WP volunteers who testified said the party’s disciplinary panel was "self-serving"
• This was because it was made up solely of the same WP leaders who knew Ms Raeesah had lied 
• Ms Raeesah also disputed assertions by WP chief Pritam Singh that she was ordered to clarify the truth and that she would be expelled from WP if she didn’t resign 

Tang Ping, Soshoku danshi, and opting out of the rat race.

I heard about the phenomena of "herbivore men" or soshoku danshi in Japan. These may be otaku who decide that sex and relationships are just too complicated. Or, more positively, they are the Satori Generation, who have "achieved the Buddhist enlightened state free from material desires".

I did not realise that this phenomena is also present in Hong Kong.

In Korea, there is the Sampo Generation. And the Strawberry Generation in Taiwan.

And in China, some men (and maybe women too?) have decided that in the face of unrelenting social and economic pressure to succeed, and the irrepressible rat race and work pressure, the best resistance, is to "lie flat" (tang ping). 

Underdogs

Let's get real.

The PAP will win the election. The question is, how will the opposition do?

And by "opposition" we realistically mean, Workers Party. All the other political parties are jokes at worst, and delusions at best.

Maybe Progress Singapore Party and Tan Cheng Bock can pull off a surprise. But even that may be a miracle. I'll explain later.

If you subscribe to the "pendulum" theory of political fortunes, that voters vote one way, then swing over to the other side, in 2011, the PAP got 60% of the vote. Then in 2015, it got 70% of the votes. In this blog, I predicted in 2015 that the PAP vote share for the next election (GE 2020) would fall.  based simply on this "pedulum" theory.

Everything I need to know for the GE 2020

So there was this Simplified List of Political Parties in Singapore to bring Singaporeans up to date on the fauna of Singapore's political landscape. 

Which tried to be as apolitical as possible. 

And not to rock the boat.

This is my list. Based on their list. With what I think is the various parties' "claim to fame", and my take on the parties.

Future Economy - how to prepare for it?

[15 Feb 2017]

The Committee on the Future Economy released it's report. And the opposition parties immediately savaged it.

I don't blame them. The report was disappointing. Uninspiring. Insipid. Unreadable. And... what did SDP's Chee say?

“Long on rhetoric but woefully lacking in bold and aggressive measures to tackle the serious problems that confront Singapore”.

"Long on rhetoric" - that was what I was thinking too. About Chee's critique.

To be fair, I agree that the recommendations are disappointing. However, what is Chee suggesting or proposing "to tackle the problems that confront Singapore? This:

"He also said the political scene and mass media have to be freed up as the present situation stifles debate, creativity and the development of questioning minds."

And that is what I mean by "long on rhetoric" -- the usual cliched political "talking points" that comes from the opposition, with barely any attempt to hide their political agenda.

Fig leaf and False Premises (and a false tsunami of hope? Or perhaps a tsunami of false hopes?)

[This was first drafted in Oct 2018, when some Singaporeans met Mahathir to invite him "take a leading role in promoting democracy and freedom of expression in South East Asia", by speaking at a yet unnamed "democracy conference" in 2019.

There were at least 5 players named in this fiasco, but leading the group are Thum Ping Tjin and Tan Wah Piow. In one new report, Dr Thum was reported to describe Malaysia as a “beacon of hope for democracy in Southeast Asia” and said he “expressed to Dr Mahathir the hope that many of us feel”.

Soaring words. Which made for some sore points with our Party in Power (PAP). 

They had responses along the usual reactionary lines. Not very... original.]

As usual PAP misses the point and the opportunity.

"If you cut us, do we not bleed? If you praise us, do we not go crazy?"

From TODAY:

Is this for real? Readers get ‘political’ over Nas Daily’s videos on Singapore

21 September, 2018




National pride. Anti-government sentiments. A population who loves to complain and is ungrateful and negative. Credibility of online content. Freedom of speech. No, it is not Our Singapore Conversation in session, though it might as well be with the range of topics that surfaced after travel vlogger Nuseir Yassin, founder of Nas Daily, hit back sharply at those who questioned why he was "so effusive in his praise" of Singapore in various videos, challenging him to take up citizenship to see what it is like to live here. Mr Yassin labelled his critics "crybabies", sparking a social media storm.

"You had ONE job!"

Apparently, Mahathir's main task is to survive long enough to pardon Anwar, and for Anwar to stand in a by-election, get elected, and wait for Dr M to... "step down" so Anwar can take over.

BUT... Dr M has a mind of his own, and probably has his own hidden agenda.

He might want to resurrect his "Crooked Bridge" to replace the Causeway. He might want to ensure that his legacy, the Proton lives on as the National car.

And after UMNO has replace Najib, who knows?

So would Dr M step down when Anwar is ready to take over?

That would be interesting to see.

Democracy Trumps

When Trump refused to confirm that he would accept the outcome of the elections, he was rightly criticised for undermining the very basis and legitimacy of democratic elections.

Well, the elections are over. The people have spoken, and Trump has won. And Obama, and Clinton, has rightly accepted the will of the people. This is Democracy at work.

Similarly in 2011, when there was a 6.5 percentage point swing against the PAP, and the WP won Aljunied GRC. That was democracy at work.

Then in 2015, when PAP had a 10 percentage point swing back for them, and they regain Punggol East, and the WP were not able to take new GRCs, and barely hung onto Aljunied, That was democracy at work.

Conversation: The Chee "Buy" Election

"So, the Chee By-election is on! Ho sei lah!"

"You just like to say, 'Chee By-Election', right?"

"Abuden! How many times do we get a chance to say this?"

"But don't think he can win, leh."

"You are wrong. He win already."

"Because it's a 'Chee By-election'?"

"Yes. But, spelt, B-U-Y."

"What do you mean?"

"I hope he wins..."

A comment on Chee's aspiration to surpass PAP-run Town Councils (from FB):

Conversation - Bukit Batok By-Election (Mar 2016)

"So Chee Soon Juan is going to contest in the By-Election."

"Like we surprised meh? Waiting for Kenneth J and Tan Jee Say to also jump in."

"But Workers Party and DPP have announced that they won't contest."

"WP not contesting also expected, lah! They know where they are strong, and they don't just jump in just because there is a lobang ok? That's why this By-Election is happening. Someone jumped in just because got lobang. WP will work the ground one, before they pia. Ai pia jia eh aia, but must also know when and where to pia. You never do homework, it's not pia, it's cheong only and hope for the best."

Why not Proportional Representation?

In a recent discussion on Singapore's political system, some opposition parties suggested scrapping the GRC (and presumably, first-past-the-post) voting to have Proportional Representation System (PRS).

There is a series of videos on political systems - how to choose a government - on YouTube, by CGP Grey.

First, you should watch the video on The Problems with First Past the Post voting.

This is a 6 1/2 minute video covering the problems with one person one vote, and first-past-the-post rules.

The initial scenario with 7 candidates is similar to the SG 2011 Presidential Election, with the winning candidate, getting less than 50% of the votes.

At 1:40, the video covers why eventually, all such First-past-the-post system will end up with a two party system (like in the US), and (by implication) why most voters don't bother to vote  by then (in the US, voter turn out for the Presidential Elections is about 50% or less in some years).

What makes good politics?

"Good Politics" is an oxymoron.

But first let's hear what WP's Low Thia Khiang proposes as "good politics" (From ST 28 Jan 2016, "WP chief Low Thia Khiang: Good politics not just good policy and lack of gridlock"):

One, politics should be "all-inclusive", so that national interest can be agreed upon by consensus instead of being "monopolised by the ruling party".
"The Government should recognise that there are many ongoing and independent national conversations and should allow for differences in opinions to flourish without marking these conversations as disloyal and divisive," he said.
Two, those with "narrow political interests" should be encouraged to engage in dialogue and such discussions should be seen as "an educational process for Singaporeans to learn and to discern what is politics for the collective good of the nation and society".
Three, Singaporeans must be trusted to be "independent, rational and wise social actors" who can build up institutions not affiliated with the Government.
For instance, universities here were "tightly controlled for fear of their political influence", but have achieved "world-class status" after their autonomy was protected.
Academics can criticise the Government and have even joined alternative political parties but "our political system has not been destabilised as a result".
Finally, politics cannot be defined just by good policies and the absence of gridlock.
"Excessive fears of political gridlock" will lead Singapore to depend on just one political party, "waiting for it to rot to the point of no return before any alternative party can be formed to take its place".