Population, Foreigners, and the TFR

[Drafted Feb 2018)

In Oct 2014, at NUS Society, PM Lee gave a speech on Singapore at this inflexion point. And he made some comments about Singapore's population policy.

First, let's do some math.

[Warning: Heavy computation ahead.]

How the PAP will lose power

Video: Ex-Brit tells the Truth about Singapore's Politician 

Every General Election is for the People's Action Party (PAP) to lose, not for the opposition to win.

Because, the majority of Singaporeans are generally content with the status quo (PAP in power) and are not voting for an overthrow of the PAP govt. 

ChatGPT answers: "How would the PAP lose a General Election in Singapore?"

Oct 1, 2023 (first drafted)

ChatGPT answer:

The People's Action Party (PAP) has been the dominant political party in Singapore since the country gained independence in 1965. However, like any political party, there are several factors and scenarios that could lead to the PAP losing a general election in Singapore. Here are some key factors that could contribute to such an outcome:

Economic Downturn: A significant economic downturn or recession could lead to voter dissatisfaction with the PAP, as they have long been associated with Singapore's economic success. If the economy falters, voters may be more inclined to consider alternative parties.

The PAP wins! Again. Ho-hum.

GE2025 results

6 May 2025

The question Singaporeans are asking is, "will the PAP ever lose control of Singapore?"

The PAP has had over 60 years of learning how to "hold onto power". Rightfully, and with (what some might call), "questionable" tactics and strategy.

Thoughts about GE 2025 before Cooling Off Day

In GE 2011, I was rooting for more opposition. Though I did not vote for the opposition. Because the opposition candidate standing in my ward, was kinda meh. WP was not in my ward.

GE2025 - Here we go again!

 

It is often quoted that a young person who is not a liberal (or progressive) has no heart. And an older person who is not a conservative, has no head (brains). 

The Singapore version of this, if one exists is that a young voter who is not pro-opposition (or anti-PAP) has no heart. And an old voter who is not pro-PAP has no head.

Trump Making America Great Again

 Video: Fareed's Take: Trump's Revolution in foreign policy

Fareed summarises Trump's turnarounds in foreign policy - putting up trade barriers, antagonising allies, and cosying up to enemies for about 2 minutes.

What is interesting is that he starts by quoting Singapore's Ministers, that the US has "changed from Liberator, to Great Disruptor, to a landlord seeking rent", and "The US is no longer prepared to underwrite the global order. This makes the international environment far less orderly and predictable."

Biden suspends campaign for re-election

So after pressure from Democratic leaders and when presented with polling results that strongly suggests that he had no "path to victory", Joe Biden suspended his campaign and endorse his VP, Kamala Harris as the Democratic Candidate for President in the 2024 election.

Contrast this to Trump's attempt to cling onto power after the 2020 election, and claimed that the election was fraudulent, and that the Presidency was stolen from him, and instigating a mob to storm the Capital on Jan 6, 2021.

Biden addresses his decision to suspend his bid for re-election.

Singapore's 4th Prime Minister

So Singapore has her 4th Prime Minister.

And the only people who commented on it was.. foreigners? Foreign press?

SimplyGo and the Singapore Way.

 

So on Jan 9, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced that the legacy "EZ-Link" card  that many Singaporeans have been using will be phased out. 

From 1st June 2024, only the new SimplyGo card can be used for Public Transport.

Taiwan's 2024 Election

 So Lai of the DPP won the presidency.

But Parliament is hung. No party has a majority to be able to form the govt. However, the KMT and the TPP could form a coalition govt and leave the DPP as an opposition. President Lai would then be hindered and obstructed, and be unable to make or execute policies.

US strategy vis-a-vis China

The video above is a podcast with John Mearsheimer, the guest, explaining why China would not invade Taiwan.

In the first 2 minutes or so, John has to explain to Lex (the host) what "amphibious operations are difficult" mean. Lex is incredulous, as he asked (0:32) "So geography still has a role to play in the 21st century?"

Yes, Lex. Geography is still important,

PE2023 results - President Tharman

 

The anti-climatic result of Presidential Election 2023 was a resounding mandate for Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

What if...

To be honest, I have not really considered or wondered about the outcome of the PE2023.

Presidential Candidates 2023

It really doesn't matter which of these become POTROS.

Simply because in the day-to-day running of Singapore, POTROS has no role. 

President of The Republic of Singapore (POTROS) Election 2023

And so we find ourselves with three candidates for POTROS. I know. We don't call our President, POTROS for short, like the US calls theirs POTUS (President of the United States). But we are the country that LOVES acronyms - CPF, HDB, PIE, BTO, CTE, COE, MOE, CMPD, CPIB, etc.

So why not POTROS?

But I digress. 

Presidential Candidates, and their respective campaigns in brief:

1) Tan Kin Lian - "Vote for him so he doesn't lose his deposit!"

2) Ng Kok Song - "Vote for him so we can have an Istana Wedding!"

3) Tharman Shanmugaratnam - "Vote for him so another Indian Minister can stay in a Govt bungalow... for free! (making him luckier than Vivian and Shanmugam!)"

Kopi-O Kok Song - a meme from social media associated (by netizens) with one of the candidates.

Why Tharman is standing for Election as President of Singapore

 

1) If he wins, he will move into the Istana... A government Bungalow. 

2) As President, he will stay there... Rent-free!

3) The other two Indian Ministers have to pay rent for the Government Bungalows at Ridout Road.

Secrets of Singapore's Success - Part 1

Ask most Singaporeans about the one critical factor for Singapore's success, and many (if not all) would probably answer: Lee Kuan Yew.

But THAT is a simplified answer for a complex answer. Because LKY did a lot of things. 

The reason people asks for the "Secrets to Singapore's Success" is because they (might) want to replicate Singapore's success. "LKY" is not a good answer, because they can't have LKY. 

Not because we are selfish and don't want to share LKY. But because he's dead.

Anyway, someone asked our Ambassador-at-large, Tommy Koh (formerly our representative at the UN) what was the secret of Singapore's success.

He diplomatically sidestepped the question, then asked 50 of Singapore's leaders in the civil service, past and present, for their take on it, compiled their essays into a book, and made bank!

Lee Kuan Yew and the American Society of Newspaper Editors - Press Freedoms and the Role of the Press in context.

"Press Freedom" is one of the go-to criticism of Singapore. Reporters without Borders rank Singapore 139 (out of 180 states) in 2022 - just above Somalia, and below United Arab Emirates. This is an improvement! Previously, Singapore was ranked 160th! Surprisingly, UAE (ranked 1 position above Singapore has 2 journalist currently in prison. Singapore, being 1 position below UAE must be worst right? So... 3 journalists in prison? Nope. 0. Somalia has 1 media worker in prison... So... who knows how Reporters without borders rank these things. Without borders, without boundaries, and without logic, perhaps?

A half-baked CPF top-up scheme.

[First Drafted in Jan 2021]

So the govt has a matching top-up scheme (Jan 2021) to help Singaporeans aged 55 to 70 who do not even meet the Basic Retirement Sum in their CPF.

It's capped at $600 a year.

Up to 5 years, so technically, it's capped at $3000.

For reference the Basic Retirement Sum (BRS) is currently $96,000. (those turning 55 in 2022)