Taiwan's 2024 Election

 So Lai of the DPP won the presidency.

But Parliament is hung. No party has a majority to be able to form the govt. However, the KMT and the TPP could form a coalition govt and leave the DPP as an opposition. President Lai would then be hindered and obstructed, and be unable to make or execute policies.

DPP won 51 seats but needed 57 for a majority and to be able to form the govt. KMT got 52 seats, and TPP got 8.

This means that if the DPP wants to form a coalition govt, it would have to either convince the TPP to work together (51+8=59, enough to form a majority and form the govt), or the KMT. The KMT is unlikely to work with the DPP.

Iti is more likely that the KMT would join with the TPP (52+8 = 60) to form a coalition govt to try to block the president's policies.

China is of course NOT HAPPY with the election of DPP's William Lai. He has been called (by China) a "troublemaker", and his reputation is as a "separatist", against reunification (as are probably all DPP leaders, to some degree or other.)

So some are speculating that his election to President of Taiwan, is more likely to trigger a shooting war with China. 

But maybe not for a few years.

China has taken to making blustering threats to Taiwan, and continuing or escalating "grey zone" tactics to pressure Taiwan. China had characterised the Taiwan Election as a choice for peace or for war. Thus when the DPP won, countries congratulated William Lai for his victory, infuriating China.

But China brought this upon themselves. 

By threatening Taiwan with war if Lai/DPP won, China ensured that countries who did not want war (because that would be bad for the WHOLE World - just look at the Russo-Ukraine war.), needed to signal to China that if China starts a shooting war, they would be (or could be) on Taiwan's side, morally, diplomatically, militarily, or economically. 

That China was infuriated (and possibly frustrated) means that the message was received loud and clear.

China is not likely to start a shooting war because she has seen what the western Democracies have done in terms of acting in unison in military support of Ukraine. She has seen what sanctions have done to Russia, and China is a lot more dependent on the free flow of goods for her economy. Locking Russia out of the world's banking system, and seizing Russia's financial reserves parked overseas have been crippling to Russia and may hurt China just as badly, if China started anything.

So that's the rational assessment.

But war and the decision to start one, is seldom rational.

Lai - "lame duck"?

The more interesting and applicable question is, how would Lai's presidency play out, without control of parliament?

Assuming KMT and TPP form a coalition govt to oppose or obstruct the DPP's plans, Taiwan may be hard-pressed to make any coherent progress in the next 4 years.

Then again, the collapse of the alliance between the two opposition parties to put up a single presidential candidate against Lai, suggests that the differences between the two parties (KMT & TPP) may be too wide for them to work together. Thus if they do form a coalition govt, it may well implode before the term is up, and then DPP may have a shot at forming a coalition govt with TPP.

But this is all speculation at this point.

China will see what Lai says in the months leading up to his Inauguration (May). "China has unlimited patience in promoting peaceful reunification and zero-tolerance for any push for Taiwan independence". So as long as Lai does not push for independence, he would not provoke China. 

Maybe.