The prospect for China

 Video: Why China will NOT be the next Japan (Rise of Asia):

Video argues that China is NOT facing the "lost decades" of Japan in the 1990s

Chapters: 

0:00 China Will Not Become Like Japan 

1:15 Modern-Day China is Not 1990 Japan 

2:50 Aging Population: A Ticking Timebomb? 

5:49 The Truth Behind the Fall of Japan 

10:07 Conclusion

[Addendum 11/6/20025: China's coming collapse.] 

China, after Lee Kuan Yew's passing in 2015.

Singaporeans know this story.

How Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in 1978, saw how a predominantly Chinese society could be rich even as it is governed strictly, and saw in Singapore, the future of China.

While China wanted to learn from Singapore, and in fact, hundreds of official trips to study the "Singapore System" were made by mid-level officials, the fact is that China and Chinese officials saw in Singapore what they wanted to see in Singapore (or saw Singapore's solutions through ideological lenses. This is very normal.) And so "transplanted" the policies and practices without fully understanding the fundamentals that made Singapore a success. For example, the lesson from Singapore's fight against corruption was distilled as "the importance of committed leadership", and ignored the significance (and importance) of the rule of law in Singapore, and how the law also applies to leaders and leadership. 

Thus, there is a hypothesis that China has not fully understood the Singapore Model.

To be fair though, what they did understand or what they did transplant from Singapore to China did result in about 4 decades of progress and growth for the Chinese economy (with about 2 decades of an inflating housing bubble). 

Deng and his successors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao led China into successive years of growth.

Wargaming China's Invasion of Taiwan

 Video: Why US Airpower will save Taiwan:

 

What is the Belt and Road Initiative REALLY about?

Megaprojects explains the Belt and Road Initiative:

This is a rather comprehensive video explaining China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The BRI is the initiative of Xi Jinping, announced in 2013. Prior to that, China's guiding principle was from Deng Xiaoping: "Hide your Strength and Bide your time."

Apparently, when Xi took over, he decided that the time to hide your strength and bide your time was over; that China's time to shine has arrived; that China was ready to take to the stage as a world leader, and to displace the current world leader.

Would China initiate a forceable "reunification" of Taiwan in the near future?

1) If China's growth had continued to stay strong, then China could afford to be patient. China could simply continue to grow, continue to get rich and richer, continue to build up her Navy (and military), and train her Aircraft Carrier crew, and prepare to invade Taiwan in the future. 

US strategy vis-a-vis China

The video above is a podcast with John Mearsheimer, the guest, explaining why China would not invade Taiwan.

In the first 2 minutes or so, John has to explain to Lex (the host) what "amphibious operations are difficult" mean. Lex is incredulous, as he asked (0:32) "So geography still has a role to play in the 21st century?"

Yes, Lex. Geography is still important,