US strategy vis-a-vis China

The video above is a podcast with John Mearsheimer, the guest, explaining why China would not invade Taiwan.

In the first 2 minutes or so, John has to explain to Lex (the host) what "amphibious operations are difficult" mean. Lex is incredulous, as he asked (0:32) "So geography still has a role to play in the 21st century?"

Yes, Lex. Geography is still important,

But, Lex persists, isn't it "inevitable" that Taiwan will be part of China? After all, China is serious about uniting Taiwan, and has made that a priority concern.

2:48 - "There is no question that it is a top priority for them and there's no question that they mean it."

BUT... The US's top priority are,

a) To support their strategic military alliances in Asia. If the US lets China take Taiwan (without any military assistance from the US), then the other US allies will wonder if the US will be there for them if they are attacked/invaded.

b) To maintain the First Island Chain that effectively constraints or contains China, and Taiwan is part of that chain.

The US would like to maintain the first island chain, contain China, BUT not be drawn into a shooting match with China.

How to do this?

First, don't provoke China. So Taiwan must not declare independence, because China has already said (committed) to invade Taiwan if Taiwan declares independence!

Second, let China know that war will not give them what they want. The first way to do this is to be significantly stronger than China, so that China knows that they will lose for sure (and the US will win for sure). But that is no longer the case.

The next level of deterrence is where there would be no clear winner in a war. And that is probably where US and China are right now.

The final level of deterrence is where even if China wins, it would be a pyrrhic victory, because the costs of victory, would be so heavy.

The US is "offering" the last two options to China now. China is facing a stalemate or a pyrrhic victory at best. Neither of which is of any use to China.

So the way forward for China is to keep growing stronger militarily until they can invade and occupy Taiwan quickly and decisively.

This is easier said than done. China's growth is slowing, and they have lots of domestic issues that will need to be addressed. And some issues are unlikely to be solved easily or at all.

IF China intends a quick and decisive victory over Taiwan, they will need to build up their amphibious assault crafts - lots of them. In the hundreds or even thousands. And these vessels would be for the sole purpose of invading Taiwan. Or they can also be used to invade Japan or Japanese islands. And the Philippines. And maybe Vietnamese islands.

In other words, once China builds up their sea lift capacity, and completes (successfully) the invasion of Taiwan, what do they do with all that sea lift capacity? Leave it to rot? Even if that is what they do, would her other neighbours - Japan, and the Philippines for example - believe that they are safe?

So China, in developing her sea life capacity in order to better invade Taiwan, would alarm her other neighbours, and might also tempt China to resolve some outstanding issues (such as the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, Paracel Islands, etc) decisively. 

Would China be able to build up a fleet of Amphibious Assault Vessels? Possibly, China can, But at what cost, and can China afford that cost now? And even if China can afford the material costs, would China want to invest in hundreds or even thousands of Amphibious vessels that would be for a single purpose? China has already opted for a compromise, or a more sustainable option - the creation of commercial transport that can be used in a military exercise, blurring the lines between "a civilian ship" and a "warship".

These "militarised" ferries, have been built or converted to military standards. Taiwan estimates that about 40 of these vessels have been modified allowing them to launch Amphibious Armoured Vehicles,

However, these are NOT warships and cannot operate in contested waters. They are a compromise solution and can relieve some the of transport burden from Amphibious Assault vessels, leaving those warships to transport troops and tanks up to the beaches (contested waters). However, while 40 or so RORO ferries which have been built to military standards can help, they can only operate behind the front lines, and there are only about 40 of them. China needs like hundreds or even thousands. And be able to operate in contested waters (i.e. up to the beaches), and operate on undeveloped landing spots (like beaches). 

So these are at best a partial and incomplete solution.

And China is running out of time to invade or reunite Taiwan.

First, its demographics are unfavourable. Its population is ageing fast, and declining by the year. Its urban youth are educated, and single child (because of years of the "one-child policy"). Which means that every one of those single child are potential for a "Saving Private Ryan" movie - The PRC edition! (Just kidding. Xi Jinping doesn't care if any specific Chinese family bloodline dies out.) 

Second, its economic growth is slowing. Companies are pulling out of China (to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, etc). its property and real estate sector are faltering, and pulling down the financial sector, its Belt and Road Initiatives are having a lot of defaults on loans, and many developments are abandoned as incomplete or unfeasible. China was supposed to surpass the US as the biggest economy within the nest few years. Now, with its growth slowing, it is never going to surpass the US. Or at least not in the foreseeable future. And even if it somehow is able to be as big as the US, it has more than 3 times the population (currently) of the US. Which means on a per capita basis, China is at best a middle income country, and it has grown old before it has grown rich. And it can only grow its military at the cost of ignoring other urgent social expenditure (like social security/pension, aged care, healthcare, etc). 

Thirdly, The US alliance of Korea, Japan, and Philippines with the de facto ally of  Taiwan, and with Japan militarising and building up it's self-defence force, the US containment strategy and the First Island Chain will only be stronger. Where in the past, China had to only wonder if the US would actively defend Taiwan, now China has to contend with Japan's and possibly Philippines's involvement as well.

The US is equipping the Philippines, and Japan is re-arming and upgrading, and Japan would soon have two de facto Aircraft Carriers (officially known as "Helicopter Destroyers"). Australia, will soon have nuclear-powered Virginia class submarines. The alliance arrayed against China is getting stronger.

So China may be growing stronger militarily, and if the US was standing still, that would be a non-moving goal post,

But the US is building alliances, and China is "helping" the US build alliances by her belligerence towards her neighbours, particularly in her Nine dash lines claims in the South China Sea, and disputes with Vietnam, Philippines, and Japan (Diaoyu/Senkaku islands). China is driving these countries into the arms of the US. These countries also learned the lesson of Ukraine. And realised they need strong military alliance when they are next door to a belligerent China. 

So the world is best served with peace.

China trying to reunite Taiwan by force is not going to do the world, and China, any favours economically. It is in China's interest not to upset the world's peace and stability. And the US has built an alliance around China to contain and dissuade China from doing so.

China is not content. But if China tries to break the First Island Chain by force, it will find that the cost would be heavy, and success is not assured.

If the US is unable to prevent a war and a shooting war breaks out with China, the US objectives would be, 1) degrade the Chinese navy. 2) reduce China's shipbuilding capacity. This also means ports at Shanghai, Ningpo, Qingdao, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Dalian, Xiamen and Shenzhen. 3) degrade their economic bases - Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and other cities near the coast, and maybe further like Wuhan and Chongqing. And maybe even the Three Gorges Dam. Certainly, China's 3 aircraft carriers would be legitimate targets, and would affect China's morale if sunk.

China is too big to invade and conquer. The best the US might do is maybe take and hold Hainan Island as a US military base. This would give the US a means to prevent China's access to the South China Sea, and to monitor Chinese Naval development. It would be a "knot" in the First Island Chain at the "throat" of China. The three objectives are all linked. Chinese Naval power threatens the US Naval dominance. So degrade the Chinese Navy. But China could rebuild their navy, given time and resources, so destroy or degrade their shipbuilding capacity. China can restore these too. So destroy their economic bases so they cannot afford to rebuild, or will take more time to rebuild.

China must see that if they hope to dominate the world, or at least their immediate neighbourhood by force, the US and her neighbours (who are US Allies) will push back, and China will be alone (like Russia for invading Ukraine), and the sanctions and adverse effects on China, will devastate China's economy and prospects. War will only degrade China's capability and capacity, and reverse China's rise. 

Thus the US hopes to convince China that war will not serve China's purpose.

But the reality is that China may have other considerations...