1) If China's growth had continued to stay strong, then China could afford to be patient. China could simply continue to grow, continue to get rich and richer, continue to build up her Navy (and military), and train her Aircraft Carrier crew, and prepare to invade Taiwan in the future.
2) BUT China's growth has stalled. China is NOT getting very much richer, very much faster. (It might still get richer, but it would be incremental, and slower). China's slower growth also means that it is not likely to surpass the US in the near future. Or even any future. Which means that China doesn't have the luxury to be patient. Taiwan is slipping out of her grasp. If Taiwan ever was in China's grasp in the first place.
3) Taiwan is IMPORTANT to China, not for their "PR" explanation of "One China", and the importance of "reunification". All that is the dog and pony show. To justify China's invasion of Taiwan. No, the real reason is that China is contained within the First Island Chain that keeps China from surging into the Pacific. China wants to break that chain that includes Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia and Indonesia. China has no hope of turning Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, or Indonesia to ally with China. Well, China tried with a Duterte Philippines, but that ended with Duterte's term. So that leaves Taiwan.
4) Taiwan is therefore vitally important to the US's strategy of the Containment of China within the First Island Chain. So while the US will still play the "Strategic Ambiguity" game as to whether it would (or would not) come to Taiwan's aid in case of an invasion, if there is even a chance of China breaking out of containment, the US will be there.
5) China knows this (pt 4 above). It knows US "Strategic Ambiguity" is as bullshit as China's need to reunite Taiwan to restore and complete the One China ('s soul).
6) Because time is running out for China (pt 2 above), China may be driven to decide that "it's now or never", and that "there will not be a better time". And decide to invade Taiwan. Except...
7) China has seen how the world responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China can expect the same. And China is more vulnerable to sanctions. And China is NOT ready to invade Taiwan. Or to face the prospects of debilitating sanctions.
8) BUT... War is not always a rational decision. Xi and the CCP, faced with intractable problems domestically - youth unemployment (for graduates who do not want to work in factories for meagre wages), real estate/property development crash, municipal debts, an ageing population, insufficient social security (pension) for the rising numbers of elderly, economic and financial instability, and possibly (in the near future) opposition to Xi's continued leadership (maybe. Not sure how this would work in a communist country like China.) So to flex, Xi might just decide that he needs a military success/achievement (i.e. "to do a Galtieri" like when Argentina invaded the Falklands.)
9) Realistically, China (and Xi) would know that taking Taiwan would be a monumental task, and China is unlikely to succeed. Moreover, the US and Japan is likely to intervene, which further reduces the probability of success. And failure would NOT be a flex.
10) BUT, there is a face-saving way out. The Kinmen and Matsu islands. Or just the Kinmen Islands. If Xi declares that phase 1 of the reunification of Taiwan will begin with the taking of the Kinmen islands, just 10 km off the coast of Fujian, it can be easily done. Taiwan would be hard pressed to defend these islands as it is only 10 km from the Chinese coast (well within Artillery range), but more than 100 km from Taiwan. It would be foolish for Taiwan to expend resources to defend or retake these islands, resources that Taiwan will need to defend the main island. So Kinmen could be taken easily. And the US would not be forced to intervene because this does not imperil the First Island Chain. China is still contained. So the US will sit pretty. Taiwan will fume. And Xi would have saved face.
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