Tipping Points

This video suggests that even as the world heats up, it would thaw the permafrost, and that would lead to a tipping point.


So the world is trying to get to "net zero" when we add zero carbon into the atmosphere, so we do not add to the warming of the earth anymore.

From the chart above, we are already passed the "safe level".

Which means that we are not keeping to a 1.5 degree increase in global temperature. 

Which means that permafrost is likely to thaw, and that would add another 60 ppm to the 420 we are currently adding.

Which means we are even further from the "safe levels".

The developed world (US, and Europe mainly) already has an average carbon footprint of about 14 tonnes. 

The Chinese averages 8 metric tons per person. 

India's carbon footprint averages 2.3 tons per person only. 

But China and India are developing countries, and they aspire to the living standards of the US and Europeans - water heaters, air-conditioning, refrigerators, internet connection, smart phones, and personal motorised transport (whether ICE vehicles of EVs). 40-50 years ago, Beijing's road were clogged with bicycles. Now Beijing , Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc are clogged with motor vehicles. 

And India hopes to emulate China's growth and economic prosperity. So 1 billion US and European citizens can try to lower their carbon footprint by denying themselves some modern conveniences. 

Meanwhile 3 billion Chinese and Indians (and a few Africans) are trying to pull themselves out of (energy) poverty... and raising (inadvertently) their carbon footprint. 

It is not what the developed world can do, but what the developing world is doing or gonna do. 

And we cannot deny the developing world of the fruits of development. That would be... selfish. And it would mean forcing them to remain underdeveloped, with no heat, no refrigeration, no climate control (even as the world overheats), and no access to the internet? or personal transport? 

So what do I think? I think we aren't going to keep temperatures to 1.5 degrees increase. We have already exceeded the "safe" level. And with these tipping points, it's going to be beyond our ability to control rising temperatures. 

What we REALLY need to do is to come up with "Clean", non-carbon polluting energy. Solar is part of the answer (at best), but not the whole answer. We need to offer India and China ways to address their energy poverty that does not increase their carbon emissions. 

And we need to address the effects of climate change - Save/help the Island nations/communities of Maldives, Seychelles, Fiji, etc. 

Or we can continue to hope to keep climate change to 1.5 degrees.

But remember: "Hope" is not a strategy.