Everything I need to know for the GE 2020

So there was this Simplified List of Political Parties in Singapore to bring Singaporeans up to date on the fauna of Singapore's political landscape. 

Which tried to be as apolitical as possible. 

And not to rock the boat.

This is my list. Based on their list. With what I think is the various parties' "claim to fame", and my take on the parties.

Party	Claim to Fame	My take
Red Dot United	Newest Political Party Broke away from PSP (next) Deferential (offered to back down to avoid 3-corner fight)	Lacks confidence. But seems enthusiastic dilettantes.
Progress Singapore Party	Tan Cheng Bock Lee Hsien Yang	See comments.
People’s Voice	Lim Tean Being sued for $1.45m, may be bankrupt soon.	All the flaws of JBJ, none of the redeeming qualities?
People’s Power Party	Goh Meng Seng Ex-WP, Ex-NSP	Pick a party and stick with it. It won’t make a difference, but at least you don’t look like an egotistical cow.
Reform Party	JBJ founded, when he was ousted from WP. Died. Son, Kenneth Jeyaretnam took over.	KJ is not JBJ.
Singapore Democratic Alliance	Supposed to bring opposition parties together.	A political alliance is often a sign of desperation.
Singapore People’s Party	Chiam See Tong (retired).  Steve Chia	Steve Chia. Nude photos. Of himself. 'Nuff said.
National Solidarity Party	Nicole Seah’s a former member.	That’s what NSP stands for right? Nicole Seah’s Party? Says something that until now that is all I know of NSP. Was once the most promising party… in 2011.
Singapore Democratic Party	Founded by Chiam See Tong Stolen by Chee Soon Juan.	Chee – a man of integrity?
Democratic Progressive Party	Huh?	From the info, zombie party. And from the latest news, they have gone back into the  grave. (Not contesting this election. #saveyourdeposit)
Worker’s Party	JBJ’s party. Until he was ousted. First opposition MP in 1981.  Low Thia Khiang’s party after JBJ Only opposition in parliament.	See Comments

[So I learned from the list that SingFirst has been dissolved. Well that saves me from trying to remember what is its claim to fame, and my take on it.]

General Comments

Most of the opposition political parties in Singapore are parties of character. 

By that I mean that the parties are led by people of character. Like say Reform Party, you’d think, JBJ! Now led by his son Kenneth J. What does he or his party stand for? Er… 

Or NSP. Nicole Seah’s Party! Not  anymore. And she was just a member. She never led the party. Who’s leading it NOW? Er… let me check.

Or SDP. Chee Soon Juan! What do you know of him? If you are older, “glucose” and “hunger  strike” might be key words for you. If you are younger, “sold a lot of books during rallies” might be you key memory. Or that their logo looks like Star Trek. With this pandemic, and restrictions on rallies, I guess his book sales will be badly affected.

Most of the opposition parties are parties of ego and personalities. And they do not last beyond their charismatic founder or leader. WP is trying to change that. But time is not on their side.

Personalities

JBJ is so famous, that you don’t even have to spell out his whole name: Joshua Benjamin Jeyaretnam. People know who JBJ is. At least for now. Give it a few more years and those who remember will die off. But he was liked. Respected. And he was genuinely concerned for those less fortunate. Unfortunately, his mouth often got him into trouble. And evicted from parliament. His place in history is secured as the first opposition MP 16 years after independence. Oh, he’s dead now.

Chiam See Tong’s place in SG history is also secured as the longest serving Opposition MP… until Low Thia Khiang. Chiam was MP for Potong Pasir from 1984 to 2011 (27 years). Low was MP of Hougang for 20 years (1991 to 2011) and then was MP in Aljunied GRC from 2011 to 2020 (9 years). So 29 years for Low. So Chiam was the longest serving Opposition MP to hold a constituency for 27 consecutive years.

Chiam tried succession planning. Without success. He brought on Chee Soon Juan into the SDP… And Chee promptly ousted him. That probably scarred and scared him from trying further succession planning. Or there may have been character or personality issues. (I gather Chiam is not a natural leader.)

Both Chiam and JBJ failed to plan for the future. Chiam is retired. And JBJ has died. Chiam has no political heir. No political legacy. Chiam was a one-man show and a one-hit wonder.

Low Thia Khiang is a different politician. He took over the Worker’s Party from JBJ, fair and square. JBJ was unhappy and felt betrayed, and that was natural for someone like him. The support for Low was vindicated in 2011 when WP won a GRC and held onto Hougang SMC. In a by-election, WP went on to take Punggol East SMC. That was 7 MPs. In addition, they had another 2 NCMPs. (A third NCMP seat was accepted by Lina Chiam, wife of Chiam See Tong, who had contested in Potong Pasir and lost by just 114 votes.)

So after the Punggol East by-election in 2013, there were 7 opposition MPs (Hougang, Punggol East and 5 MPs of Aljunied GRC), and 3 NCMPs. That would be the highpoint for opposition. And Low should be credited for the success of WP.

GE 2020 will see if his legacy endures. It has waned in 2015 when they lost Punggol East. And barely held onto Aljunied.

Tan Cheng Bock is a veteran PAP MP who represented Ayer Rajah SMC for many years (1980 – 2006). He was my MP before I moved out of my parent’s home. He took a run for the presidency in 2011, and tried to argue that the 2017 PE should not be a qualified PE restricted to a specific ethnicity. History will note that he failed. So now he has set up the Progress Singapore Party and wants to stand for election as an MP at the age of 80 (born 1940). I do not know what drives him. He is not exactly without achievements. What does he hope to achieve now? As a former PAP MP, he should know that opposition MPs are ineffectual. They can make a lot of noise, but they can’t make headway as opposition. To make a difference, you need to BE the government, not nipping at the heels of power.

The Parties

Segueing from Tan Cheng Bock, we have the Progress Singapore Party, whose other claim to fame is: Lee Hsien Yang.

Brother to PM Lee Hsien Loong.

With whom he (and his sister) have been in conflict over their father’s (Lee Kuan Yew) wishes regarding his home. Not sure what winning an election will accomplish. 

Running the country is serious business. Bringing in your family feud serves no one’s interests. Least of all Singaporeans.

Worker’s Party.

As the most successful opposition party, I do hope that they grow from strength to strength.

But, the signs are not optimistic.

This is a time of crisis and uncertainty, and in such times, people want a government with a proven track record.

You can flirt with the opposition in good times. But then the SHTF you want a government that can deliver. This is called, flight to safety/security/quality.

Many people are facing loss of income from the “circuit breaker” to contain the pandemic. Many were placed on reduced hours, with reduced pay, or even no hours and no pay for weeks and even months, as the circuit breaker stretched out. Hawkers, taxi drivers, small businesses saw their income drop precipitously. Taxi drivers and Private Hire drivers (Grab) had just a fraction of what they used to be able to earn in an 8 hour stint.

They would flock to the PAP because the PAP can deliver, and has delivered in the past.

Why do you think Tan Cheng Bock suggested NOT having a GE during a crisis? He knew this was the best time for the PAP to have an election. And a terrible time to try to persuade voters to give the untested opposition a try.

So what does this mean for the Worker’s Party.

Aljunied was already shaken in the 2015 election. Will Aljunied fall back into the PAP’s fold in this GE? I believe there is a good chance that it might. BUT, I do not live there and so I do not know first-hand if they like their Opposition MPs.

And Low Thia Khiang is effectively retiring. Suddenly, there is no veteran, no familiar face, no personal loyalty to hold the voters to WP. 

These two reasons may be enough for Aljunied voters to decide, “enough is enough”, and fly to the safety of the PAP in this time of crisis when even Low Thia Khiang is abandoning them.

But I could be wrong. Maybe Pritam and Sylvia has made headway in capturing their loyalty. Maybe the voters in Aljunied are less concerned with bread and butter issues like jobs, and income, and basic necessities (like toilet paper), and inflation, and believe in a First World Parliament that WP promises (or whatever their new manifesto envisions – I’m not current on that).

Maybe WP can hold onto Aljunied.

And maybe win another GRC?

Prediction

So what is my prediction for this GE 2020?

Firstly, in 2015, I predicted this:

I will stick out my neck and say that in the next election, regardless of what the PAP does between now and then, and regardless of what the opposition does between now and then, and regardless of what their arguments are for more opposition, the vote share for PAP will fall.
What swings one way, will swing back.

So PAP got 69.9% in 2015. This year it's supposed to drop. According to 2015 "me".

But I dunno. It's not what PAP or the opposition has done (nothing), but the situation we are facing - a pandemic, trade war, decoupling from China, an idiot in the White House withdrawing from the world in the name of "making America Great again", Protests in Hong Kong, Black Lives Matter protests in the US.

Crisis upon crisis.

All I will say is, I hope WP hang onto Aljunied.