Five Reasons why China will not invade Taiwan (in the near future).

I discovered this video after publishing my earlier post on How China might invade Taiwan, and Would China invade Taiwan?

This video explains China's strategic vulnerabilities and why they would want Taiwan to strengthen their defences and strategic options.

Then, it goes into why China cannot win, and why even trying and failing would be a bad thing. For China and for Chinese leaders (i.e. Xi Jinping).

It also explains how China and Taiwan have become economically intertwined and that is the best case for peace, or at least, non-war.

[From the video, the 5 reasons are

1) Xi JinPing's political ambition. Xi intends to seek a third term in 2022, and talking tough on Taiwan, would gain political points for him. Also, China is facing a lot of problems, and using Taiwan as a whipping boy, can distract the populace.

2) Invasions are difficult. Invading an island even more so, because of the logistics of planning a beach landing. Invading Taiwan is particularly difficult because of weather and sea conditions. There are only two windows when an amphibious assault has a chance of succeeding. But Taiwan has already made preparations. Moreover, the number of beaches suitable for an amphibious assault is only 13, so Taiwan would know the limited areas China can try to land their troops. And even so, these "suitable" landing areas are surrounded by mountains, which are good for the defenders and potentially deadly for the invaders. And China hasn't been in a shooting war for over 40 years.

3) China can see from the world's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and can expect the same. China is very dependent on Trade for its economy, and it imports food and energy. If there are sanctions and blockade, China would be crippled economically.

4) Taiwan's Military Defence and network. The US is committed to aid Taiwan, though the extend of the aid is undefined and shrouded in "strategic ambiguity". China cannot be sure that the US would directly aid Taiwan militarily. It might. Or it might not. No promises.

5) Taiwan and China are economically intertwined. China must hope to invade and conquer Taiwan within a short time. Preferably within a day, so as to minimise disruption to trade. Except that this is highly improbable.]

Taiwan constantly plays up the potential threat of China. They have sound reasons to do so. If the US believes the threat is real and imminent, then the US is more likely to be agreeable to helping Taiwan, and selling Taiwan more weapons, and perhaps better weapons.

The US military also has a motive to drum up the threat of China. The US military exists to defeat other military threats. If there are no credible military threats, they cease to have relevance, or their governments might decide that there is not need for a high or higher level of military capability. And their budget would be cut. An on-going threat from China is a great reason for the military budget in general, and specific military expenses. 

China's commitment to reunification with Taiwan is a matter of national pride, and a long-standing commitment (since 1949). Giving up that commitment would be an admission of weakness and incompetence (of the current leadership). China therefore CANNOT back down from their position and must in fact talk up an even more aggressive stance precisely if they are actually weak. 

And so you should view news of China's "recommitment and continued commitment to the reunification of Taiwan by force if necessary" with a skeptical eye, and wonder what weakness they are hiding in the bluster.

Similarly, you must view Taiwan's "assessment" and "analysis" of the imminent threat of China's invasion and military might with a view to Taiwan's unspoken agenda and need.

And the US Military's concurrence with Taiwan's military assessment of the China threat, must also be seen as a collaborative bias in perception tinged by self-serving interests. 

Which is not to say that there is NO threat. But that the threat may be overblown. And there is a need to view the situation with more objective eyes. Or at least consider alternative views.

Personally, my (objective) assessment is that China will benefit more from peace, than war. 

Which is not to say that China will NEVER invade Taiwan, (because "never" is a long time), but a rational China will weigh the costs and should realise that it would cost them too much to start a war with Taiwan. BUT, situation may change, and China may weigh the costs, and it may be that sometime in the near future, China may get some benefit from a war, that would offset other costs.

[Here is the 6th reason why China would have to worry if it tries to invade Taiwan - Taiwan could strike back strategically.

The best defence is offence. Taiwan has announced that it has the capability to strike at Beijing or the Three Gorges Dam. Beijing as the capital of China would be a strategic target. And the Three Gorges Dam would be a flood threat to almost half the population of China. Its waters if released could threaten Yichang, Wuhan, Nanjing, and Shanghai, and disrupt North-South communication and control. This would in turn disrupt the war efforts.

Of course, this is a mutual assured destruction strategy. China would almost certainly retaliate. Possibly with nuclear weapons, and turn Taiwan into a nuclear wasteland.]

[Mar 2023 addendum. New Video "Can China get Enough Troops to Taiwan Right Now to win?":

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