Active and actual war with China (PRC) is unlikely. (Tho PLA could continue to up the irritation level with incursions into sea and air space.) For several reasons.
1) China has a lot of "problems". There's Tibet, Xinjiang/Uighurs, India, HK (minor compared to the others), dispute with Vietnam, Philippines, Japan in the South China Sea, and probably a few more hotspots that we are not aware of. The invasion of Taiwan will mean a considerable concentration of their military resources (men, machine, and munition) to commit to that military objective. Potentially leaving those other hotspots inadequately defended. If while they are engaged in a shooting war with Taiwan, one of these other hotspots flares up, that could lead to destabilisation of the other hotspot. And China could end up playing "whack-a-mole", militarily.
2) There are two "windows" for invasion - April and October (IIRC). These are when the seas in the Taiwan Strait are passable for a amphibious assault. Other times of the year, the seas are too rough, and there are no scenarios where China "invades" and capture Taiwan without "boots on the ground". Also China does not have sufficient amphibious assault crafts (yet). Sure they could commandeer miscellaneous crafts for the role, but without proper purpose-build amphibious assault crafts, their troops would be vulnerable.
3) China will need to have undeniable, and complete conquest of Taiwan. Taiwan just need to resist the invasion. There is no likely scenario where China can have a swift victory within say 2 weeks of intense conflict (shooting war). At least, not with the current balance of power. Within 2 weeks, the best case scenario is that the PLA could secure some beach head/ landing zones. But the rest of the island would still be resisting (and unconquered). Why 2 weeks? The PLA assessment is that if they cannot defeat Taiwan in 2 weeks, they would have lost. Taiwan would just need to sink the troop carriers and amphibious assault crafts. That would cripple the invasion. This could be with artillery, rockets, missiles, (from aircrafts or land-based launchers), or even commandoes/special forces. Taiwan also has strategic targets - the Liaoning for one. The Shandong, for another. The Three Gorges Dam, tho this may be a little out of range for their missiles, and may not be a "legal" target.
4) If China tries to invade Taiwan and Fails, it would be a huge blow to morale and political standing (domestically and internationally). Depending on how the shooting war starts, China could also be seen as the "bad guy" and lose diplomatic influence/standing.
Here's an analysis/commentary from The Diplomat:
For domestic political reasons, China is extremely unlikely to embark on a war of choice against Taiwan in the next year. In February 2022 Beijing will have the opportunity to present itself in the best possible light to a massive international audience when it hosts the Winter Olympics, in which the Chinese government has invested lavishly. A cross-strait war would ruin this party. In October 2022, the CCP will hold its 20th National Party Congress. Xi Jinping will be up for a third term as CCP general secretary. It is hard to imagine Xi starting an unnecessary war with Taiwan prior to his re-appointment because of the high risk that war-related economic and even political turmoil would erode Xi’s popularity.
Even with the PLA’s improved capabilities, military action against Taiwan is an extremely risky proposition for China. An attempted invasion across the strait would involve the largest and most complex amphibious operation in history, and this by a military with no significant combat experience since 1979, when it performed badly in a border war against Vietnam. China could more confidently capture one of the ROC’s smaller outlying islands or impose a blockade on Taiwan’s major ports, but neither of these approaches would guarantee Taipei’s surrender.
Chinese analyst Cui Lei of the China Institute of International Relations recently argued that Chinese leaders feel compelled to maintain an image of toughness toward Taiwan, but have no intention to launch a military attack in the foreseeable future. Cui argued that military action is daunting because Taiwan’s people will not submit without a fight; the United States would help defend Taiwan out of fear of losing U.S. leadership in the region; China is not as militarily strong as the United States; war would cause discontent in China; and the international backlash would derail China’s progress toward modernization.
So one outgoing Admiral (US) predicted that China would invade Taiwan within 6 years.
...the six-year timeline for attacking Taiwan coincides with the 100th anniversary of the PLA, and may also mark the last year of Xi’s third term in office (2022 to 2027). Xi could be continuing on a fourth term or handing the baton to someone else in the year 2027. The US military may be predicting that the mainland is aiming for a reunification by force vis-à-vis Taiwan before it reaches this milestone.
Then, there's this:
A US Military plane landing in Taiwan was supposed to be a bright Red Line that was supposed to mean WAR.
It didn't.
China backed down.
Perhaps, this is not the time. (Not 6 years yet.)
Perhaps it was not the Bright Red Line that it was supposed to be.
It was after all, a military TRANSPORT plane, bearing humanitarian aid.
Kinda peevish to go to war over that, eh?
The point is that China was never serious about invading Taiwan. At least not right now. Or in the foreseeable future.
Building up their military with a view towards taking Taiwan by force is a planning parameter, an aspirational goal. For now.
It helps to focus the energy and emotions of the people on a national goal.
And not on more mundane things, like corruption, hunger, workplace inequalities, hazardous or inhumane working conditions, and poor leadership.
China has been working up its people, arousing their nationalistic fervour. It seems (to me) like they (the CCP leadership) are trying to distract the people.
China may go to war. Or start a war. If it serves their purpose of distracting the populace from domestic problems.
[Update 18/6/2021:
Low probability of China trying to seize Taiwan in near term: Top US general
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley told lawmakers that while Taiwan was still a core national interest of China, "There's little intent right now, or motivation, to do it militarily."
"There's no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future," Milley said during a Congressional hearing.
"My assessment in terms of capability, I think China has a ways to go to develop the actual, no-kidding capability to conduct military operations to seize through military means the entire island of Taiwan, if they wanted to do that," he added.
update 20/6/2021:
Found this debate from 21 May:
]
Addendum 21/6/2021: Re-reading what I wrote above, I realised that I left out an important point. If you got the impression from the above that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan (at least in the foreseeable future - say within the next 6 years) that was the most important point. I wanted to discount the probability of an invasion, at least in the foreseeable future. Base on the current balance of power and advantages and disadvantages, it is on balance better for China NOT to attempt to retake Taiwan, because it is likely to fail.
However, a core principle or truism in military strategy is, you do not PLAN for what the opponent SHOULD, or is LIKELY to do, but what he CAN do. China CAN decide to try to invade Taiwan. On balance, China should not as success is unlikely, and the fallout would be devastating, so China SHOULD NOT TRY to invade Taiwan.
But she could.
And plans have to be made as if she would.
So Taiwan has to train to repel an invasion. Taiwan has to arm up as if they needed to repel an invasion. And the US have to ensure that they have the resources and the wherewithal to help Taiwan to repel an invasion.
As the saying goes, "if you want peace, prepare for war".]
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