Open borders. Closed minds.

If you're like me and practically live on Facebook, this Monday (29 Nov 2021) was the first day of the opening of the borders between Singapore and Malaysia, and many people working in the other country can finally go home to the families.

In other related news, there is a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. 

Identified just last week, the variant now called Omicron (because WHO does not want to use "Nu" (pronounced "Nee") and "Xi". Because.) has been detected first in South Africa, and neighbouring countries, and now in Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, and Israel. South African doctors report that so far, symptoms have been mild and could be treated at home. 

Generally, viruses become more transmissible, but less deadly. Because a dead host cannot infect others (and further spread the virus).

Experts have been careful to report only what they know and can prove. But like any human beings, they like to appear prescient, or have good predictive ability. So they point out the 32 mutations on the spike protein that suggests that Omicron would be more infectious (Delta only has 2 mutations on the spike protein). Some of the mutations are associated with immunity evasion, so the experts pointed this out, too.

Of course the scientist in them caveat that all these are just speculations, and the actuality of the variant remains to be seen.  (Watch this video for a fact-based analysis of Omicron.)

But that just went over the heads of the great unwashed and paranoid.

And WHO did not help. They made the following statements:

"The Omicron coronavirus variant is likely to spread internationally" 

"... a "very high" global risk of infection surges that could have "severe consequences" [in] some areas,"

"[WHO] urged its 194 member states to accelerate vaccination of high-priority groups and... to "ensure mitigation plans are in place" to maintain essential health services.

"Omicron has an unprecedented number of spike mutations, some of which are concerning for their potential impact on the trajectory of the pandemic," 

"The overall global risk related to the new variant... is assessed as very high."

"Increasing cases... may pose overwhelming demands on health care systems and may lead to increased morbidity and mortality. 

"The impact on vulnerable populations would be substantial, particularly in countries with low vaccination coverage,"

"...countries should use a "risk-based approach to adjust international travel measures in a timely manner". Further advice would be forthcoming...

"The presence of multiple mutations of the spike protein in the receptor-binding domain suggests that Omicron may have a high likelihood of immune escape from antibody-mediated protection. However, immune escape potential from cell-mediated immunity is more difficult to predict,"

"Overall, there are considerable uncertainties in the magnitude of immune escape potential of Omicron."

If you read the above with the uncritical mind of a layperson (i.e. the average Joe, or the average Sam Tan) I would not blame you for concluding that "We're going to DIE! We're ALL. GOING. TO. DIE!"

That's because WHO is.... (i'm trying to find kind words)... in a difficult position. 

They DO NOT WANT to be like the Orang Utan former POTUS who said that Covid "is like the flu", and that there is nothing to worry about. 

That would be wrong. 

And the world is not optimally protected yet. There are still many population that are unvaccinated, and these people are vulnerable. 

And any new "variant of concern" could possibly throw a wrench into our attempt to get the pandemic under control. 

Vaccines are working (regardless of what the Anti-vaxxers -- oops! sorry, I mean "vaccine-hesitant" -- think or say). Vaccines have reduced the severity of Covid, and the death rate. 

Which is NOT to say that Covid has been conquered. We are, as always, in an arms race with the virus -- as we adapt to it, other variants (mutations, or cluster of mutations) emerge which are either more infectious, or more elusive from (or more resistant to) our immunity. 

THAT is the nature of our biological warfare and "arms race" with germs (virus and bacteria). 

So the WHO is trying to get people to be appropriately "concerned" and not take things for granted, or think that we got this thing beat, or that we can let down our guard, or we can finally take things easy and breathe easy.

If you are a rational person, you would be appropriately cautious.

But of course, if you are not rational, you can get into a deep, screaming, blue funk. Or crawl into your conspiracy hole and pull it in over you, 

Or take to Social Media with your "The END is NIGH! REPENT! AND DIE ANYWAY!" message. 

I dunno if you are in the same world as I am, but I'm getting a lot of Doom and Gloom anti-Vaxxers (oops! Sorry, I mean -- ahhhh forget it! Call a spade a bloody spade and call the dithering "vaccine-hesitant" WTF they are: anti-freaking-vaxxers!)

Because the conclusion of the anti-vaxxers is that we are all going to die. Vaccines don't work. WHO is in cahoots with China/Big Pharm/the Illuminati (or whatever, I'm sorry I have not bothered to deep dive into their conspiracy theory. My "illogical alarm" goes off and I can't hear anything.), and the Govt is just trying to make money (which is why we get the lousy non-working vaccine that doesn't work, FOR FREE, and the sceptical minority have to PAY for the REAL VACCINE that works i.e the Chinese Vaccines -- and yes, I know the preceding DOES NOT MAKE SENSE because anti-vaxxers DO NOT MAKE SENSE.)

As far as I can figure out, the conspiracy theories about Covid-19 may include the following points:

1) Covid-19 is a manufactured crisis. This may mean or suggest that the virus was man-made (for whatever reason), or that THERE IS NO VIRUS. After all, have you PERSONALLY seen a SARS-CoV-2 virus? (And LOTS of people with Covid are asymptomatic. So no symptoms! But a doctor will point to a test result and say you have Covid.)

2) Vaccines are fake! They don't work. Why would they need to if there is NO Virus (see point 1 above). Or they are poison! Or they are supposed to make you Magnetic (why? So people would be attracted to each other and get married and have more children? Dunno! The conspiracy theory never explain the significance of making people magnetic.) Or they are supposed to make you obedient slaves of the govt. Or they are trying to poison everybody and kill off everyone. Or at least all the obedient ones who take the vaccine will be killed off, leaving the goats to deal with the rebellious anti-vaxxers! (That seems like a bad plan. You should kill off the rebellious ones, no?) I tried engaging (sort of) with an anti-vaxxer. The basis of his doubts about vaccine was that at the outset of the pandemic, experts warn that it would be YEARS before a vaccine was available. Yet, within a year, TWO vaccines were ready to roll. That was highly suspicious to him! I replied thus:

"The virus that causes Covid19 is the SARS-Cov2. Sounds familiar?
SARS first emerged in 2003. Work to develop a vaccine started after that. Why? Because that's what scientists do. So when SARS-Cov2 emerged (officially) in 2019, it was simply a matter of redirecting efforts towards the related virus/coronavirus. So the vaccine was based on over 15 years of work on a related virus (SARS). Not simply developed (out of thin air) in less than a year."

(That was the short answer. Here's the video on how mRNA was 50 years in the making.] 

3) Governments are ALL in on it. Speaking of governments, they could not commit to fighting climate change (at COP26). They could not commit to a viable action plan to reduce carbon pollution. There was no unanimity in any of the decisions. But somehow on Covid-19, they could all agree to pretend that this fake virus is real (see 1), and could all agree to pretend that the fake vaccines were the solution (though different centres of power tried to produce their own fake vaccines). And even enemies conspired to pretend that this virus and vaccines are real! China is in on it, as is Taiwan. The US is in on it as is China and USSR. The US is pointing at China as the source of the outbreak, and China is making weak attempts to deflect the origin story of the virus to the US, when a strong rebuttal of the mere existence of the virus would be so much more effective!

So it would seem that Anti-Vaxxers believe in one or more or all three of the above. I think all the beliefs hinges on the 3rd conspiracy theory that ALL the governments of the world are in on this conspiracy. 

And why are ALL the Governments of the world committed to this conspiracy?

Dunno. (Trying to get logic from a conspiracy theory is like trying to make sense of a cult.)

A friend of mine who is a Christian (this may be a pertinent detail) has several Anti-Vaxxers in his circle of friends. He finds it difficult to engage these Anti-Vaxxers on their conspiracy theory beliefs. 

He is frustrated by their nihilism and defeatism. Or just negativity: "Vaccines don't work. Vaccines are poison. The govt is out to get you. It's all lies!" So what do they advocate as the TRUE and CORRECT response to Covid?

Isolate. Stay at home. Don't go out. Minimise social contact. 

Basically, these people are frightened and they respond in fear. 

So they are not in favour of opening up. After all, vaccines don't work, and vaccinated people may have a false sense of security. The govt are in on it, so they are opening up social contact so more people can be infected (assuming that the virus is real of course). 

And so of course they were watching the borders open up with Malaysia with trepidation and deep suspicion. It was not a good idea. 

Then Omicron emerged. 

And they went into a frenzy of fear. Close the borders! Stop the travel. 

[I do not know why they are concerned about Omicron. After all, if the virus is a fake crisis, there is no virus. Alpha, Delta or Omicron, they are all part of a word game signifying nothing. And if vaccines are fake and don't work, then what does it matter if it is Alpha, Delta or Omicron? The most the govt can do is to lie to them and tell them for protection against Omicron, they will need another booster, or a omicron-specific booster when it is ready. But they are already anti-vaxxers. Why would they believe they need a booster?]

As my friend noted in his frustration with anti-vaxxers, they have no clear path to normalcy. Vaccines aren't their answer, so all they want to do is to stick their heads in the sand socially, and isolate themselves until.... the end of time?

Meanwhile:

SINGAPORE: Two travellers who arrived in Sydney on Sunday (Nov 28) on a Singapore Airlines (SIA) flight from Singapore have tested positive for the new Omicron COVID-19 variant.

"Both passengers arrived in Sydney from southern Africa on Singapore Airlines flight SQ211," said the New South Wales health ministry (NSW Health) in a media release.

They were both fully vaccinated and have been isolated in special health accommodation, it added.

 

The above two cases are different from two other passengers on a Qatar Airways flight via Doha.

"The two positive cases, who were asymptomatic, are in isolation in the special health accommodation. Both people are fully vaccinated," NSW Health said.

At the time of this writing (the week of Nov 29), we still don't know how concerned we should be about Omicron. The number of mutations and what the mutations might do suggests that it might be more infectious, have more severe symptoms, and may be immune evasive. But that's all conjecture at this point. Scientists do not and should not try to do predictions without evidence or empirical evidence. 

The four that landed in Sydney Australia were all vaccinated. This sample of 4 would suggests that vaccines do not seem to protect as well. But at least two of them were asymptomatic which either suggests that the vaccine MIGHT protect against severe symptoms... or that the new variant might have mild effects mostly.

The experts are only speculating. But it is better to overestimate this variant and be happily wrong two weeks later, than to underestimate the variant and be dead wrong. Or just dead.

So, if you are not an anti-vaxxer, what should you do?

The WHO made this statement about Omicron:

"The presence of multiple mutations of the spike protein in the receptor-binding domain suggests that Omicron may have a high likelihood of immune escape from antibody-mediated protection. However, immune escape potential from cell-mediated immunity is more difficult to predict,"

What does that mean?

The WHO acknowledges that the numerous mutation on the spike protein SUGGESTS that Omicron could be more immune evasive (or immune escape) from anti-body mediated protection. WTF does that mean? One of the treatment for Covid is monoclonal anti-bodies which are "engineered" antibodies to help the patient fight off the Covid virus. What the WHO is saying is that the numerous mutations in Omicron might make the variant unrecognisable to monoclonal antibodies, and those drugs may not work because Omicron would have escaped detection by the artificial antibodies.

However, the WHO goes on to say, "immune escape potential from cell-mediated immunity is more difficult to predict," And so you ask, "WTF is "cell-mediated immunity?" This refers to your natural immunity system. Which is more adaptable. We face many germs and viruses every day, and our immune system deals with these invaders. The known invaders would be dispatched quickly by the corresponding antibodies. But it doesn't mean that a new virus would totally wipe us out. 

Covid was a new virus, but when it infects a person with good immunity, the body mounts a defence against the invader and can successfully fight it off. Which is why over 99% of the infected survive (at least in Singapore), even before there was a vaccine. 

However, our natural immune system is more adaptable. It has to be because we have ALWAYS been in an "arms race" with bacteria and viruses. Viruses continually evolve (or mutate rather) and our bodies immunity have had to evolve and adapt to new variants and mutations. 

So what the WHO is saying is, vaccines might be less effective against Omicron, but it could still help a patient fight off the infection. In other words, the WHO is unable to predict the interaction of the variant with our natural immunity and our vaccine-boosted immunity. 

And as viruses mutate/evolved, they “become more transmissible but less deadly…. " because the virus wants to increase and the way it increases is by infecting more hosts (people), and you cannot do that if your current host is dead or immobile.

Also the population would develop herd immunity or resistance, and the virus would be less lethal. But less lethal doesn't mean non-lethal. People still die from the flu. 

So, get vaccinated. It would provide protection. It would prime your immune system to fight off Covid. 

Even the Omicron variant.