Omicron: Variant of Concern

 So there is a new variant (of Covid-19) now.

• The WHO on Friday named the variant Omicron, classifying it as a variant of concern
• Singapore announced restrictions for travellers who had recently been to seven African countries believed to be at risk from a new Covid-19 variant
• The variant is reported to have more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, of which four of them believed to be able to neutralise some treatment options
• More studies are need to determine whether the mutation can diminish the effectiveness of vaccines, or if it is more contagious
• Experts say if the variant spreads widely around the world, it will eventually arrive in Singapore

So, should we be worried?

Take a hint from WHO: we should be concerned. But we have no concrete reason to worry for now. If you want to WORRY, of course you can!

And then, what are you going to do about your worry?

What CAN you do if you are worried? 

I guess if you do not have to work for a living, do not need to meet or engage with people except remotely (via Zoom, phone/video calls, etc), and can simply live off food and service delivery to your home, you can isolate yourself and NEVER catch Covid-19 regardless of the prevailing variant flying about.

Unfortunately, the rest of us will have to venture out into the world. And risk it.

The numbers can be frightening. Or concerning. 

If you read even one report (or google for more reports on the omicron or B.1.1.529, or "Nu" as it was speculatively named by some initially) the numbers could be worrying.

Thirty-two mutations on the spike protein. Ten on the ACE2 receptor (compared to 3 and 2 on the Beta and Delta variant), "which is the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells". Which sounds... bad. 

BUT... numbers are just numbers. The Delta variant has two mutations and is more transmissible. BUT the  Beta variant had THREE! But it was not more "successful" than Delta which has become the dominant variant. If the number of mutation were all that matters, then the Beta should have been more successful than Delta! 

Which is not to say that Omicron is not more dangerous. It MIGHT be. It still remains to be seen. So for now it is a Variant of Concern. The scientists are tracking it and its effects. Its 32 mutations might well make it more transmissible. Or it might not. It remains to be seen.

And the scientists are also concerned that the mutations may enhance its "immune evasion". The mutations MAY make it more immune evasive. Or not. That also remains to be seen. And for drugs intended to fight the virus (monoclonal antibodies), some mutations may render the drugs ineffective. Because these monoclonal antibodies are "engineered" proteins that target the specific virus. And mutations could make the virus so different that the drugs do not recognise and fight it. Thus it might evade these drugs. 

However, our natural immune system is more adaptable. It has to be because we have ALWAYS been in an "arms race" with bacteria and viruses. Viruses continually evolve (or mutate rather) and our bodies immunity have had to evolve and adapt to new variants and mutations. 

So the takeaway you should get from this is, the new variant may be more transmissible and may be more immune evasive, but evading our immune system just means that our immune system will need a little more time to adapt to, and eventually fight off the new variants. It is simply going to take a little more time. But most of us should be able to do so.

But what about those of us who can't fight off the new infection? Will more people die?

On this, Dr Paul Tambyah said:

“Even the Delta variant is much more transmissible but overall not more virulent (and) that is what most viruses do,” he said. “They become more transmissible but less deadly…. There is no reason to believe that this virus will be any different.”

And note that Dr Tambyah is a Specialist in Infectious Diseases. And an opposition politician. 

So he has no vested (political) interest in singing the same tune as the government, except his integrity,  scientific credibility, and commitment to the (scientific) truth. 

And the truth is, viruses in general do not "want" to kill the host. (Viruses do not have "wants" as humans do, so "want" here is anthropomorphised.) A dead host cannot infect others. Even a host that is too sick, cannot move about and infect (more) others. So imagine that that are two pools of infected persons. One set is infected with a variant that is severely deadly, While the other set of people are infected with a more infectious, but less deadly variant. Over time the number of people with the deadly variant will be fewer, as more victims die and are unable to infect others. The more infectious but less deadly variant will spread more, because the victims are less incapacitated, and would move about more, and infect more people. But  this is less of a problem because the infected people get a bit sick, rest a while, and get better. 

The problem, or the disease, has become endemic.

And we can live with it.