[I started this in April 2020, as Singapore entered our "circuit breaker" (a.k.a. lockdown). Along with most of the rest of the world. The news were depressing, and mostly pointed to what looked like the end of civilisation as we knew it. So I wrote and edited this draft, but as the pandemic seemed to have no end. I had no end for this piece. I just kept writing and re-writing. There may be no end to this pandemic. Or it will become endemic. With intermittent flare up of epidemics. Who knows?]
Would our "familiarity" with the virus lead to some herd immunity and lessen its toll on human lives?
Would we come to live (and die) with it?
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| Teddy bear abandoned on street in Turin, Italy (Photo: Reuters) |
My opinion is that because of how transmissible it is and how mild its symptoms are for about 80% of the infected, it will never really be completely eradicated. [Watch video below.]
So in the long term, it would become another seasonal, endemic illness. If you get it and you are in the high risk group, the medical/healthcare industry will have to intervene appropriately.
(That's the conspiracy theory that China engineered the Covid19 virus to kill off their old so they won't be a burden to China trying to become a rich nation.)
However there are shorter-term implications.
Trade and economies have been affected. Shutdowns and lockdowns, shelter in place order (or "Stay home" orders), closing of borders and restrictions on the movement of people have crippled tourism, travel, hotels, and restaurants.
Which are major components of the economy. The loss of business have force owners to fire workers, and unemployment is rising even as economies are receding.
Airlines are going under.
By now, many developed economies have shut down their cities. Economic activity has halted except for the very critical and essential.
So after this coronavirus pandemic, there will be a pandemic of unemployment. Which will have its own problems and need fresh solutions.
Which are major components of the economy. The loss of business have force owners to fire workers, and unemployment is rising even as economies are receding.
Airlines are going under.
By now, many developed economies have shut down their cities. Economic activity has halted except for the very critical and essential.
So after this coronavirus pandemic, there will be a pandemic of unemployment. Which will have its own problems and need fresh solutions.
[There is unemployment and under-employment, but it's not as bad as we expected. But it is bad, Just not "a pandemic of unemployment".]
Because this isn't the normal unemployment. Look at this US jobless claim chart:
The spike at the end is the unemployment due to the lockdown measures to try to slow the spread of the infection. As businesses are force to suspend their activities they have no income to continue to pay rent and income. So workers are let go. And then they have no income and can't pay their rent. And landlords who depend on the rental income to pay off their mortgage default on the mortgage. And the banks/home loan institutions have a problem.
It had knock-on effects rippling through the economy.
And even when things go back to some kind of normal, it would not be business as usual for some sectors.
I don't see myself going on overseas holidays for maybe 2 years. Many people will have to rebuild their savings and contingency funds, and also, as airlines restart, the capacity may not be as high as pre-pandemic which means fares will not be competitive (cheap).
Maybe.
And maybe there are bigger problems for airlines in the future.
But perhaps this is an opportunity to find a greener way to live in future.
Maybe we will learn that not everyone needs to commute to work, or fly across continents for business meetings.
But we're not at the end yet. We're not even close to the end of this pandemic. What's next?
Can we expect a vaccine to save us?
Because this isn't the normal unemployment. Look at this US jobless claim chart:
The spike at the end is the unemployment due to the lockdown measures to try to slow the spread of the infection. As businesses are force to suspend their activities they have no income to continue to pay rent and income. So workers are let go. And then they have no income and can't pay their rent. And landlords who depend on the rental income to pay off their mortgage default on the mortgage. And the banks/home loan institutions have a problem.
It had knock-on effects rippling through the economy.
And even when things go back to some kind of normal, it would not be business as usual for some sectors.
I don't see myself going on overseas holidays for maybe 2 years. Many people will have to rebuild their savings and contingency funds, and also, as airlines restart, the capacity may not be as high as pre-pandemic which means fares will not be competitive (cheap).
Maybe.
And maybe there are bigger problems for airlines in the future.
But perhaps this is an opportunity to find a greener way to live in future.
Maybe we will learn that not everyone needs to commute to work, or fly across continents for business meetings.
But we're not at the end yet. We're not even close to the end of this pandemic. What's next?
Can we expect a vaccine to save us?
[Yes. by 2021, there were vaccines for Covid-19. And there were anti-vaxxers, and vaccine-resistence, and vaccine-reluctance, and vaccine-sceptics. So the vaccination programme has slowed down as at July 2021 in some countries.]
We can hope for a quick development of an effective vaccine, but realistically, maybe not for a year to two. Or more.
Which may mean this is the new normal.
In other news, Bernie Sanders had suspended his bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
[For non-US citizens or those not familiar with the US election process, there are two main political parties in the US - the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Presidential election, each party would nominate one candidate to stand for election. As the incumbent, Trump would be the Republican Party's candidate.
The Democrats will need to nominate a candidate. At the start of the race, 16 (or more, I lost count) individuals offered themselves as candidates.]
Which may mean this is the new normal.
In other news, Bernie Sanders had suspended his bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
[For non-US citizens or those not familiar with the US election process, there are two main political parties in the US - the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Presidential election, each party would nominate one candidate to stand for election. As the incumbent, Trump would be the Republican Party's candidate.
The Democrats will need to nominate a candidate. At the start of the race, 16 (or more, I lost count) individuals offered themselves as candidates.]
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[Spoiler Alert: Biden won the election. Trump cried "foul"! (with no evidence), and instigated an attack on the capitol on Jan 6 2021 to overturn the election results.]
Anyway, it's now July 2021, and there are more variants of Covid-19 - Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta - and some of these variants are more transmissible, and some are less affected by some or all vaccines to various degrees.
The world has many vaccines to choose from, and people have differing levels of trust for the vaccine.
And Singapore and other countries are looking at the situation and realistically expecting that Covid-19 may never truly be eradicated. It will become endemic. Vaccines will provide some protection and ameliorate some of the effects so that patients are less likely to die from Covid-19. But we may never be rid of it. It will become another flu or cold.
The world is trying to get back to normal. Because it has to. We are social animals after all. It is unnatural for us to be cut off from others. So we yearn for social gatherings again.
We will get there.
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