So how did the bookies predictions turn out?
Not very good, if we consider an accurate prediction to be within 2 percentage points, and a close prediction to be within 5 percentage points, and anything above 7 percentage points to be off the mark.
Sembawang GRC - Way Off!
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC - Way Off!
West Coast GRC - Off!
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC - Accurate!
Fengshan SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Hougang SMC - Off!
Mountbatten SMC - Way Off!
Pioneer SMC - Off!
Yuhua SMC - Off!
The "bookies' prediction" had 3 accurate calls (Ang Mo Kio GRC, Tampines GRC, and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC), and 4 close predictions (Chua Chu Kang, Pasir Ris-Punggol, Nee Soon GRCs, and Bt Panjang SMC).
However, they had 5 "Epic Fails" where they predicted the wrong candidate/party would win.
Comparing their Predictions with the final Results.
Ang Mo Kio GRC - Accurate!
Comparing their Predictions with the final Results.
Ang Mo Kio GRC - Accurate!
Prediction: PAP-79.4%, RP-20.6%
Final Results: PAP- 78.63%, RP-21.37%
Aljunied GRC - FAIL!
Prediction: WP-60.9% , PAP-39.1%
Final Result: WP-50.95%, PAP-49.05%
WP still won, but by a hair, not the comfortable margin predicted.
Sembawang GRC - Way Off!
Prediction: PAP-58.4% , NSP-41.6%
Final Result: PAP-72.28%, NSP-27.72%
PAP won by a landslide. Not the marginal but comfortable win predicted.
Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC - Way Off!
Prediction: PAP-60.6%, SPP-39.4%
Final Result: PAP-73.59%, SPP-26.41%
PAP won by a landslide. Not the comfortable win predicted.
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC - Close!
Prediction: PAP-77.4%, SDA-22.6%
Final Result: PAP- 72.89%, SDA-27.11%
Prediction was more optimistic (for PAP) or pessimistic (for SDA), but was close to final result.
Jurong GRC - Way Off!
Prediction: PAP-68.7% , SingFirst-31.3%
Final Result: PAP-79.28%, SingFirst 20.72%
Final Result: PAP-79.28%, SingFirst 20.72%
Prediction was more than 10 percentage points off.
Marine Parade GRC - Off!
Prediction: PAP-54.2% , WP-45.8%
Final Result: PAP-64.07%, 35.93%
Prediction was 10 percentage points off.
Nee Soon GRC - Quite Close.
Prediction: PAP-60.3% , WP-39.7% (PAP wins)
Final Result: PAP-66.83%, WP-33.17%
A bit pessimistic (For PAP), but quite close (6 percentage points).
Tampines GRC - Accurate!
Prediction : PAP-74.4%, NSP-25.6%
Final Result: PAP-72.06%, NSP-27.94%
Tanjong Pagar GRC - Way Off!
Prediction : PAP-61.2%, SingFirst-38.8%
Final Result: PAP-77.71%, SingFirst-22.29%
Chua Chu Kang GRC - Close!
Prediction : PAP-71.8% , PPP-28.2%
Final Result: PAP-76.89, PPP-23.11%
East Coast GRC - EPIC FAIL!
Prediction: PAP-46.2%, WP-53.8%
Final Result: PAP-60.73%, WP-39.27%
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC - Off!
Prediction : PAP-58.7%, SDP-41.3%
Final Result: PAP-66.62%, SDP-33.38%
West Coast GRC - Off!
Prediction : PAP-68.6%, RP-31.4%
Final Result: PAP 78.57%, RP-21.43%
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC - Accurate!
Prediction: PAP-70.2%, SDP-29.8%
Final Result: PAP-68.73%, SDP-31.27%
Jalan Besar GRC - Off!
Prediction: PAP-58.1%, WP-41.9%
Final Result: PAP-67.73%, WP-32.27%
Radin Mas SMC - Way Off!
Prediction: PAP-67.2%, RP-31.2%, Independent-1.6%
Final Result: PAP-77.25%, RP-12.71%, Independent-10.04%
Bukit Batok SMC - Way Off!
Prediction: PAP-62.9%, SDP-36.9%, Independent-0.2%
Final Result: PAP-72.99%, SDP-26.40%, Independent-0.6%
MacPherson SMC - Off!
Prediction: PAP-59.3%, WP-39.6%, NSP-1.1%
Final Result: PAP-65.58%, WP-33.6%, NSP-0.82%
Hong Kah North SMC - Way Off!
Prediction : PAP-61.3% , SPP-38.7%
Final Result: PAP-74.76%, SPP-25.24%
Final Result: PAP-74.76%, SPP-25.24%
Bukit Panjang SMC - Close!
Prediction : PAP-65.1%, SDP-34.9%
Final Result: PAP- 68.38%, SDP-31.62%
Fengshan SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Prediction: PAP-45.8% , WP-54.2%
Final Result: PAP-68.38%, WP-31.62%
Hougang SMC - Off!
Prediction: WP-65.4% , PAP-34.6%
Final Result: WP-57.69%, PAP-42.31%
Mountbatten SMC - Way Off!
Prediction : PAP-56.4%, SPP-43.6%
Final Result: PAP-71.84%, SPP-28.16%
Pioneer SMC - Off!
Prediction : PAP-67.6%, NSP-32.4%
Final Result: PAP-76.34%, NSP-23.66%
Potong Pasir SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Potong Pasir SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Prediction: PAP-45.1% , SPP-54.9%
Final Result: PAP-66.41%, SPP-33.59%
Punggol East SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Prediction : WP-66.9%, PAP-33.1%
Final Result: WP 48.24%, PAP-51.76%
Sengkang West SMC - EPIC FAIL!
Prediction : PAP-45.8% , WP-54.2%
Final Result: PAP-62.11%, WP-37.89%
Yuhua SMC - Off!
Prediction : PAP-63.9% , SDP-36.1%
Final Result: PAP-73.54%, SDP-26.46%
On the one hand, you might say that the bookies were only "directionally wrong" in 5 cases. But if they are supposed to make odds based on the percentages, they were only close or accurate 7 times. Out of 29.
I'm not a bookie and I do not know how one uses percentages like that, but I won't have any confidence with this type of results.
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