PM Lee's successor - A Conversation

"Wah Liao! Elections over already, people still talk and talk and talk. Whether opposition is dead lah. Whether PAP strong again. Whether PAP will become how lian again and forget who they working for. How the opposition can improve to win back the support of the people. Whether Singaporeans are stupid, lah. What do you think?"

"Whether Singaporeans are stupid?"

"Not just that, lah! Everything!"

"I agree with you. Elections over already, people still talk and talk. Mostly they talk about the wrong things with the wrong facts and with wrong assumptions."

"Wait! Simple question: Are Singaporeans stupid?"

The Politics of Singapore. (Or "what's this I hear about the 'New Normal'?")

With the 10 point "swing" back to the PAP, some are saying there was never a  "New Normal" that was being bandied about after GE2011.

GE2011 was just a hiccup. Voters were just having a "hissy fit" as Chua Mui Hoong puts it:

If so, then GE2011 was the equivalent of a hissy fit from voters unhappy over rising costs, infrastructure overloads and immigration.

-  "Silent majority's roar of support for PAP"

Chua Mui Hoong

Straits Times 12 Sept 2015 

Now, can we get back to our lives?

The state of the opposition after GE2015

I've referred to most of the opposition parties as "irrelevant" before Polling Day.

Let's see if they have achieved relevance.

Singapore Tune - Post GE2015

In the fallout from GE2015, may I offer this oldie.

Start at 0:40

Three Key Secrets of the Vote

I cannot be sure, but I've heard enough anecdotes to have an inkling that many people still do not believe their vote is secret.

OK. Actually, I have met some people who absolutely believe that their vote is not secret.

They have their reasons.

Firstly, they notice that their ballot paper has a serial number. This makes every ballot traceable. If they don't intend to trace how one votes, then why is there a serial number, right? [play ominous music!]

Secondly, the election officials at the polling station reads out the voters name and some numbers. And if you are paying attention, it is to those people in white sitting opposite them. People in WHITE! [play MORE ominous music!]

Thirdly, the election official WRITES down something (I don't know - name, NRIC number, etc) on the counterfoil of the ballot! [Play EVEN MORE OMINOUS music!]

Top Ten Reasons for PAP to have done so well for GE2015.

Yes, it was a shocker!

Tan Jee "Sing First, Say Later" was flabbergasted! "Why this has happened"? All their ground sensing was that voters were unhappy with the PAP and their policies. Which suggests that their ground sensing may not be very representative.

Meanwhile, PM Lee said that the results “exceeded their expectations”.

A 10 percentage point swing towards the PAP! What could have caused it?

Here are the Top Ten Reasons PAP did unexpectedly well in GE2015!

Heeeeeere we go!

10 - All those posters of PM Lee looking at voters created fear in voters and they felt they had no choice but to vote PAP

So how did the bookies do?

Predictions are only as good as their accuracy.

So how did the bookies predictions turn out?

Not very good, if we consider an accurate prediction to be within 2 percentage points, and a close prediction to be within 5 percentage points, and anything above 7 percentage points to be off the mark.

The "bookies' prediction" had 3 accurate calls (Ang Mo Kio GRC, Tampines GRC, and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC), and 4 close predictions (Chua Chu Kang, Pasir Ris-Punggol, Nee Soon GRCs, and Bt Panjang SMC).

However, they had 5 "Epic Fails" where they predicted the wrong candidate/party would win.

Dark Horses, Black Swans

Chee Soon Juan made a speech at a rally (Thurs, 3 Sep) that was titled (by the one who put up the video), "The Best Speech of GE2015."

On the one hand, that is some honour to bestow on an election rally speech. So I watched it.

On the other hand, considering all the other speeches and soundbites of other speeches, that may not be saying a lot.

Is it as good as the hype?

I would say it resonated with the audience.

AHPETC conversations

AHPETC is the Vietnam War of Singapore Politics.

It's a quagmire of claims and counter-claims and accusations and counter accusations, and like any war, the first casualty is truth.

So here is the most clear-headed summary of the AHPETC issue I could find.

Which I thought provided a pretty fair assessment of the issues. Though the conclusion could be read as pro-PAP.

But really, do we need to continue with this? There is nothing to be gained from this.

By now, most voters wouldn't be able to tell you the specifics of the long-running saga - only that neither side comes off well.

Commentary on the "Bookie" predictions

The so-called "bookie odds" figures should be viewed sceptically. I have no idea why bookies would have predictions to 1 decimal place. In fact, I seriously doubt if these practical mathematicians would see a practical need for such accuracy.

So while I will refer to these figures as "bookie odds" or "bookie predictions" in no way am I asserting that these are actually predictions of bookies.

Also, if these were empirical data - that is, people are betting on which candidate or party would win in a given GRC/SMC, say, Ang Mo Kio, and the results were: PAP-79.4% , RP-20.6%. So 80% of bettors were wagering that PAP would win, while only 20% (or 20.6%) were betting that RP would win - then all these percentages reflect is the aggregated wishes or opinions of bettors, and not the choices of voters.

Do you know as much as a bookie?

I got this message, source identified only as "bookie odds".

Make of it what you will.

Bookies' Predictions

Ang Mo Kio GRC : PAP-79.4% , RP-20.6% (PAP wins)

Sembawang GRC : PAP-58.4% , NSP-41.6% (PAP wins) 

Bishan- Toa Payoh GRC : PAP-60.6% , SPP-39.4% (PAP wins)
Pasir Ris -Punggol GRC : PAP-77.4% , SDA-22.6% (PAP wins)
Aljunied GRC : WP-60.9% , PAP-39.1% (WP wins)

Conversations with a Friend (II) - Musings about the GE

"So are you scared already?"

"Scared about what?"

"Scared of the PAP, lah!"

"Why?"

"WP say, if PAP wins, they will increase taxes, increase GST, increase foreigners in Singapore until Singaporeans will be a minority in their own country."

"So if WP wins, there will be no increase in GST, no increase in taxes, Trains will not break down, and Foreigners will stop coming here?"

"If WP wins?"

"Ya."

"For sure fewer foreigners will be coming."

Rallies? Really? Bringing Elections up to date.

So this afternoon, I heard the PAP electioneering vehicle go by.

It is the quaintly anachronistic practice from the 1960s and 70s where a lorry (or a pickup) festooned with the political party's flag, loudspeakers, and a recording (perhaps an MP3 file, but I would not be surprised if it were an antique tape recorder. Not a cassette tape mind you. That would be too modern. No. A spool to spool tape recorder. Nothing beats old school, man!).

The vehicle makes its rounds through the estate blasting its message over the loudspeakers. It is the PAP candidates rehashing the accomplishments of the team, and extolling the virtues and promises of the PAP.

I assume.

Living on the highest floor, the message was a bit garbled.

"The PAP.... many years... achieved... promises.... good life... future.... Vote for PAP!"

This was in the afternoon. Of a workday. And it got me wondering.

Who is around at this time of the day to listen to this? You can only make it so loud before it is unbearably loud on the ground floor, and if it is not loud enough, it would be barely intelligible past the 12th floor. Have you heard of the internet, the radio, blogs, websites, and TV?

Oh you have? And you have blocked most if not all of them?

Great job!

Nothing assures me the PAP is the party to bring us to the future than their commitment to kicking it old school with that loudhailer truck.

Musings on the Impending GE - Conversations with a Friend

From conversations with a Friend.

"I think GCT would prefer to retire instead of going for one more term, but he agreed because the party needs him to hold Marine Parade."

"But based on what he said (about WP being arrogant, etc), I think he trying to lose so he can retire anyway!"

PAP's strategy for 2015

No. PAP still doesn't have a strategy.

This is just my fantasy.

This is what I THINK PAP should do. But they won't.

Because they are too conventional, conservative, straightforward, politically naive, and unable to think out of the ballot box.

And also because my strategies are kind of unorthodox.

I had previously suggested some strategies for them. But apparently no PAP MP reads this blog. (And I criticise them for THEIR communication skills? What about mine?)

I read the news report on Goh Chok Tong's press conference.

Cringe-worthy.

Here's a free advice. From now on, at all Press Conference, after the formalities of introducing the new candidates. their background, their area of interest and achievements, etc say only this:

This election is about discovering the will of the people, what the people want, and who they think will most likely give them what they want. With free and fair election process, I am confident that the will of the people will be made known. And PAP accepts the results of the election whatever the outcome.