Saturday, 9 June 2018

This is a test of the Emergency Broadcast System!

This is what happens if North Korea launches an ICBM with 150 kt warhead centred on Shangri-La (and if they hit what they aim at):

150 kt warhead detonated at Shangri-La, 1.66 km above ground, maximising radius of 5 psi airburst overpressure.

Which is probably why the SG govt moved Kim to St Regis. Kim had wanted Fullerton Hotel. But I believe SG countered with St Regis. Probably gave him some cock and bull story about security threats from the waterfront rendering Fullerton a high-risk location or impossible to secure.

The more important factor is that the St Regis is about 560m from Shangri-la, as the crow flies. Or as the nuclear fireball travels. But St Regis will be just outside the nuclear fireball (about 450m). So no instantaneous vaporisation of the Supreme Leader. *IF* an ICBM detonated above Shangri-La.

BUT St Regis would still be well within the Radiation, 5 psi Airblast, and Thermal Radiation radii. This means, the hotel might collapse, injuries are almost certain, and burns are almost fatal.

The Radiation from the detonation of the warhead will cover 1 km radius with 500 rem of radiation. Without treatment, there is a 50% to 90% mortality, with death coming within hours or weeks. 

The 5 psi Airburst radius is 3.74 km and within this radius, most residential building will collapse from the overpressure. So Hotel New World but within a 43 sq km area. The airburst area will extend North to MacRitchie Reservoir, encompassing Toa Payoh Central, Balestier Road, KK Hospital, Little India, Fort Canning, Chinatown, South to SGH, Bukit Merah, Queensway, Holland Village, and cover Hwa Chong Institution (High School) and National Junior College.

If Kim was at Fullerton Hotel (his stated "preferred" choice of hotel), it would JUST escape the 5 psi airblast radius, so the building would likely withstand the blast, and Kim would only be at risk of Thermal Radiation. Which he might survive if he had appropriate protection. (Maybe he's not fat. Maybe he is wearing radiation protection underneath his suit?).

Can we stop an ICBM? 

To take down or stop an ICBM, we will need THAAD or some other Anti-Ballistic Missile system.

We don't have that because SG's defence planning does not include a defence against ICBM. SAF training does not include that (because Malaysia doesn't have one, Indonesia's main weapon is Haze and we already have no defence against that, Philippines just need to stop sending FW here, and we are crippled, and Thailand got their own domestic problems to deal with). Which is probably why we are hosting this summit.

Why? 3 reasons. 1: As long as Kim is here, he won't launch missile at SG. He would be in the line of fire. 2: As long as POTUS is here, there should be an AEGIS Destroyer parked nearby providing missile defence. 3: if the talks fail and somehow it's SG's fault, or Kim blames SG for the failure, we kidnap and hold "Supreme Leader" hostage to prevent North Korea from retaliating.

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