GE 2015 Outcomes - Scenarios

I shouldn't do predictions cos I keep getting them wrong.

So I'll take a page from the PAP and just do scenarios

First, let's put aside the unlikely, extreme scenarios

Extreme Scenarios - Highly Unlikely

There are two extremes. The first is PAP takes back AHPE and no other opposition wins any contest. PAP wins all 89 seats for a clean sweep of parliament. We all go back crying.

The second is PAP loses EVERY seat. And there are 28 WP, 11 SDP, 11 NSP, 11 RP, 10 SingFirst, 8 S/DPP, 6 SDA and 4 PPP.

The Best is Yet 2B

I am a sceptic, a cynic, a realist.

And a "realist" is how a "pessimist" describes himself.

So I might be a pessimist too.

Recently, I said to my colleague, "I fear the best years of Singapore are over. It ended with LKY, when he handed over the country to his successor."

PAP and LKY were handed SG to rule when Barisan Sosialis walked out of Parliament in the 60s. PAP then became the default and only choice of a small island city state (political joke) ever at risk of spiralling into the trash heap of history.

Democracy. The Worst form of Government?

It's been some time (more than 8 weeks!) since my last pontification on Democracy. So of course, it is time for another one.

I do apologise to regular readers of this blog (yes, all three of you. Thanks, Mom! Dad! Honey!) for my "obsession". I would not be, if the democracy-evangelists/ideologues would just shut up.

The latest is this opinionated piece by a "democracy-ideologue/apologist for India" which is titled: Does Democracy lead to Good Governance?

But in a classic bait-and-switch, after asking this very important question, he instead answers another question - "Is Democracy Desirable?"

Wrongly.

Then, there was the Greek Referendum. Where the Greeks were asked if they would like to suffer austerity measures, or not. They voted "no". How... surprising.

And some weeks back Bill Clinton cited a quote popularly attributed to Winston Churchill (it is not from him) "that America will always do the right thing... after they have tried everything else." This quote may have "evolved" from this:

“Men and nations behave wisely when they have exhausted all other resources.”

Irrelevant Sideshows

Apparently, we have 11 opposition parties or more.

All of them save perhaps 2, are irrelevant.

Parties of Personalities - Class III

Most of the parties are one-man show with delusion of grandeur and rational Singaporeans would never vote for them.

Tan Jee Say, Kenneth Jeyaretnam, Goh Meng Seng, and Desmond Lim are clearly persons of ego, and legends in their own mind. Benjamin Pwee doesn't come across as being in the same league as the rest in terms of ego. But I'm leaving him here for now, mainly because he is synonymous with the Democratic Progressive Party. I may be doing him an injustice, but it is a small injustice.

I shall miss LKY's National Day Rallies.

A colleague asked me what I wanted to hear from this year's National Day Rally.

This was my reaction to last year’s NDR:                         

Reactions and Reflections on the 2014 National Day Rally

I can't help but compare with the NDRs of Lee Kuan Yew.
Firstly, I thought it was sad that time had to be spent during this NDR in explaining the CPF, the minimum sum, and retirement options. But perhaps it was the zeitgeist - the concern of the day, of the people. And perhaps it is an indictment of the government's communication of policy.

Being Singaporean

Many years ago (some time in the early 80s, before the world-wide web), I read an article about the Singaporean Identity (in a printed magazine): What it means to be Singaporean.

It was a reflective piece with interviews of various personalities, of which I only remember Toh Chin Chye being one of the more prominent interviewee.

The article concluded (IIRC) that the Singaporean Identity was still emerging, still being defined, and it was a long and on-going process, and it cannot be rushed.

I mused about that for a long while and accepted that it was probably a reasonable conclusion. Anyway, SG was about 20 years old or a little over, then, so it was probably premature to try to pin down a distinct SG identity.

But the point is that thinking about the Singapore Identity is not a new thing and it has piqued the interest of many.

Fast forward to today.

And there is a new study on the Singapore Identity.

Re-Speculation

Over a year ago, I speculated as to the possible outcomes for the next General Election.

My conclusions were:

The best scenario I can see is WP taking another GRC and SMC for 13 seats in Parliament. NSP could maybe take a GRC or an SMC. But this is an overly optimistic scenario. NSP may still be shut out in 2016.

I ignored and am ignoring the other parties, because they are irrelevant.

SPP is a spent force. Other opposition characters have been playing musical chairs. Apparently, we now have 11 opposition parties. Is that a lot? Well, there are 16 presidential candidates in the US... just from the Republican party.

Since that speculative post (of 9 May 2014), LKY has passed away. I wrote then:

Tanjong Pagar's fate may well depend on whether LKY continues to run. If he runs, he will likely hold the ward. But if he decides to retire, the backlash could be harsh.

Well, I think with his passing Tanjong Pagar is unlikely to fall to the opposition.