Tuesday, 10 March 2020

Some thoughts of the US Presidential Elections 2020

As of this writing, the Democratic candidates are down to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Biden has a lead and is likely to hold the lead and win the nomination. Which will be a sad thing. But understandable.

Politics are conservative.

Until it is not.

With his wins and endorsements from Super Tuesday, Biden is on track to win the Democratic nomination to be the Presidential candidate.

Bernie Sanders is the only one still in the race and he is still within striking distance of winning the nomination.

Theoretically. Or mathematically.

However, from this video it would seem that Sanders is too progressive to be electable. Or rather, the conservative voters want a moderate like Biden.

The problem is, a moderate will only end up "resetting" the conditions where a Trump can win like he did in 2016.

Progressives or trouble-makers like Sanders don't win nominations.

BUT... (from the opinion in the video above), MODERATES don't win ELECTIONS.

So Biden could sew up the primary race and win the nomination and be the Democratic candidate for President... and lose the election!

Giving Trump 4 more years!

Except... Trump won't win.

Trump knows instinctively (or otherwise) that his re-election depends on the economy. And that is not looking so good for him.

His trade war with China would have lobbed off some growth. Then the coronavirus came along and China shut down.

Then the oil prices crashed. Then the stock market fall (9 Mar).

Covid19 will not resolve itself within this year, from the looks of things. This epidemic is on track to become a pandemic, and some say it is already a pandemic.

Which means that the world is very likely to enter a recession. And the US economy will be part of that recession.

And Trump will not be re-elected.

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