Wargaming China's Invasion of Taiwan

 Video: Why US Airpower will save Taiwan:

 

What is the Belt and Road Initiative REALLY about?

Megaprojects explains the Belt and Road Initiative:

This is a rather comprehensive video explaining China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The BRI is the initiative of Xi Jinping, announced in 2013. Prior to that, China's guiding principle was from Deng Xiaoping: "Hide your Strength and Bide your time."

Apparently, when Xi took over, he decided that the time to hide your strength and bide your time was over; that China's time to shine has arrived; that China was ready to take to the stage as a world leader, and to displace the current world leader.

A Superficial Summary (and commentary) of Countries Military Ranking

As a consequence (partly) of the Ukraine invasion, some "hypothetical" questions are being asked - Can China take Taiwan? If the US comes to Taiwan's aid militarily, or in a straight (military) contest between China and the US, will China prevail or will the US? If Japan gets involved, is it a given that Japan being "smaller" (militarily, territorially, and economically) it will be disadvantaged (at least against China)?

Can China take Vietnam if it wants to? In an Sino-Indian war who will win/lose/prevail/be left standing?

Those are the big questions.

There are slightly smaller questions. Like, would Singapore be able to defend itself against Malaysia? Indonesia? If her bigger neighbours attempt to swallow the "little red dot"?

Multi-Role Combat Vessel - Cos "Mothership" has already been taken

Sept 2023

So while we have wet dreams about Singapore having a (light) aircraft carrier, there are plans to have a Multi-Role Combat Vessel (MRCV), which is a "mothership" for unmanned surface and air assets (drones).

This is a natural evolution for the RSN as more unmanned assets are incorporated into the RSN.

 

"We are NOT Happy!"

 Singapore falls 5 spots to 30th in world happiness ranking but still tops Asia for 2nd straight year

Singapore has been ranked Asia's happiest country for the second year in a row, according to the 2024 World Happiness Report. The country ranked the 30th happiest out of 143 places surveyed, but that's five positions lower than from a year ago. The countries were rated according to six factors: GDP per capita, social support networks, healthy life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, charity donations, and perceptions of corruption. Finland topped the global list for the seventh straight year, followed closely by Denmark and Iceland.

Location. Location. Location

One of the conventional wisdom for Singapore's early success was its location.

"Situated at the crossroads" and "gateway to the orient" (so... Singapore is not "orient"?) Singapore's location is key (according to many analyses) to her success.

I would argue that it may be a necessary but insufficient condition.

After all, Penang and Malacca have historically been trading centres as well.

To the south, Bintan and Batam are islands as well placed as Singapore. 

Raffles chose Singapore in part to challenge the Dutch who were in (what is today) Indonesia. 

Did Singapore get Taylor Swift on a Exclusivity contract?

PM Lee answers how SG got Taylor Swift to Singapore. Notice he says "negotiated an arrangement" (0:07) for Swift to perform in Singapore. "And to make Singapore her only stop" (0:10). At about 0:40 PM Lee says "we can't say, 'you will come here only on condition that you will go other places'". Note how uneasy he seems.

So, did Singapore make Swift sign an exclusive arrangement?

"You snooze, you lose"

Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has toured in Japan, and Australia, before the tour came to Singapore.

No need for mandatory vaccination.

[From Sept 2021. In draft and not previously published. It is a little incomplete, but I forgot what was the last point I wanted to make. And it's not really germane at this point in time.]

So the Singapore Govt has decided (at this time, end Sept 2021) that there is no need to mandate Covid-19 Vaccination. 

Because, we have already achieved more than 80% vaccination rate, and this should be sufficient for herd immunity; this should be sufficient for us to try to live with Covid.

Because, mandating vaccination to try to force the anti-vaxxers (and yes, I am going to call them "anti-vaxxers", because calling them "vaccine-hesitant" or "vaccine-resistant" is just putting lipstick on a pig. Those that are truly hesitant has had sufficient time to make up their minds, and no, the "time's up" is not of my making or my impatience. The delay in protecting everyone is allowing the virus a chance to mutate with every infection, and with every mutation, there is a chance of a new "variant of concern" to emerge.) to get vaccinated will lead to a battle of wills. 

And at the end of the battle, the anti-vaxxers will still be anti-vaxxers, but at the most, we would have forcibly vaccinated them. For some small increase in community protection. 

Would China initiate a forceable "reunification" of Taiwan in the near future?

1) If China's growth had continued to stay strong, then China could afford to be patient. China could simply continue to grow, continue to get rich and richer, continue to build up her Navy (and military), and train her Aircraft Carrier crew, and prepare to invade Taiwan in the future. 

Tipping Points

This video suggests that even as the world heats up, it would thaw the permafrost, and that would lead to a tipping point.


So the world is trying to get to "net zero" when we add zero carbon into the atmosphere, so we do not add to the warming of the earth anymore.

SimplyGo and the Singapore Way.

 

So on Jan 9, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced that the legacy "EZ-Link" card  that many Singaporeans have been using will be phased out. 

From 1st June 2024, only the new SimplyGo card can be used for Public Transport.

Taiwan's 2024 Election

 So Lai of the DPP won the presidency.

But Parliament is hung. No party has a majority to be able to form the govt. However, the KMT and the TPP could form a coalition govt and leave the DPP as an opposition. President Lai would then be hindered and obstructed, and be unable to make or execute policies.

What if... Malaysia and Singapore goes to war?

[Edited/Amended in Jan 2024.

Yes, it is incongruous that I "refresh" this post just as Johor and Singpaore are looking forward to more cooperation and working towards passport-free travel between Johor and Singapore. But yes, I am hopeful for a "common market" for Johor and Singapore. This post is just a reaction to the video from a few years back.]

There is this speculative video on YouTube:

The video assumes that for whatever reason, and in whatever scenario, diplomacy has broken down, and war has been declared. This is an attempt to argue against the assumptions. 

1) Singapore is not worth conquering. 

Most invasions/occupations are for tangible benefits - land, oil, natural resources, etc. Singapore has limited land. Malaysia has LOTS of land (compared to SG). They don't need SG's land. SG has NO NATURAL RESOURCES. No gold. No oil. We even have to import SAND! But, you might say, SG is richer than MY! So wouldn't MY want to take those riches? 

But... the source of SG's wealth CANNOT be taken. It is intangible.