Wargaming China's Invasion of Taiwan

 Video: Why US Airpower will save Taiwan:

 

3:25 The Various Scenarios - Base, Pessimistic, Optimistic, "Ragnarok", and "Taiwan Stands Alone".

4:12 Heavy costs to US - 200 US Aircraft, 8 warships including 2 Aircraft Carriers. In the Base Scenario, US lost 270 Aircraft and 17 warships. In pessimistic scenarios, US losses were even heavier - 484 aircraft lost, and 14 warships.

6:20 Why US Aircraft Carriers are so quickly lost.

6:40 Traditional for US to have large show of force by sailing one or two Carriers into the troubled area as a deterrent. But this means that when the shooting starts, the carriers would be in the line of fire. And China would be determined to bloody the nose of the US by sinking these carriers, and even if the carrier defences could stop some of these attacks, China would likely overwhelm the carrier's defence with saturation attacks.

"A fine deterrent can make a superb target" - Thomas Schelling

9:30 The key to victory over China is to degrade their naval assets.

9:54 The LRASM (450 missiles), and the JASM-ER (3600) - key to victory.

EXCERPTS FROM THE WARGAMING REPORT

A summary of the scenarios results:

The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan's navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities. Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island. Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian roll-on, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads.
However, in the most likely "base scenario," the Chinese invasion quickly founders. Despite massive Chinese bombardment, Taiwanese ground forces stream to the beachhead, where the invaders struggle to build up supplies and move inland. Meanwhile U.S. submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet. China's strikes on Japanese bases and U.S. surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous.
There is one major assumption here: Taiwan must resist and not capitulate. If Taiwan surrenders before U.S. forces can be brought to bear, the rest is futile.
This defense comes at a high cost. The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the U.S. global position for many years. While Taiwan's military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services. China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war.

Would China invade? (From the report)

"I do not think they [the Chinese] will attack Taiwan as long as they believe unification without war remains a viable course of action. They will attack, however, despite the enormous cost and despite any doubts about their own military capabilities, if they judge that peaceful unification is no longer possible, that military force is the only remaining option. That in turn is driven by their assessment of political developments in Taipei and Washington."

 - Lonnie Henley, Retired Defence Intelligence Officer

Why need for war-gaming? (From the Executive Summary):

This understanding is important because U.S. policy would be radically different if the defense were hopeless than if successful defense were achievable. If Taiwan can defend itself from China without U.S. assistance, then there is no reason to tailor U.S. strategy to such a contingency. At the other extreme, if no amount of U.S. assistance can save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, then the United States should not mount a quixotic effort to defend the island.

However, if U.S. intervention can thwart an invasion under certain conditions and by relying on certain key capabilities, then U.S. policy should be shaped accordingly. In this way, China would also be more likely to be deterred from an invasion in the first place. However, such shaping of U.S. strategy requires policymakers to have a shared understanding of the problem.

Strategic Attacks on Chinese Mainland?

The rules preclude this option (striking the mainland) for the war-games. This constitute a red-line that might risk escalation with a nuclear power. Secondly, Chinese air defence on the mainland would be (presumably) too strong, and it would take a while to produce operational results. Missions around Taiwan are to take priority.

This is a rule within the war-game. However, in real life, the strategic value of threatening or attacking the mainland may over-ride the risk of escalation. But it is prudent to consider the risk of escalation. 

Loss of two US carriers

In all the scenarios, the US would lose two super-carriers. Usually within the first week of hostilities. Two reasons. First, the US would send their super-carriers into a troubled region as a show of force, and commitment of the US to "de-escalate" the situation. But, this puts the carriers well within striking range of China's anti-ship weapons, and China has made it a point of pride to sink US carriers. 

The video below provides reasons for why the carriers are "unsinkable".

However, if it floats, it can sink. And China will make it their point of honour to sink at least one US carrier.

Ten Reasons US Aircraft Carriers are (almost) impossible to sink:

But the scenario in the sinking of the two Supercarriers is due to China's missile attack overwhelming the Carriers' defensive interceptors, depleting their anti-missile defence.

How China might invade Taiwan - best case scenario from the war-game.

So the point of the war-games is to illustrate that war is futile. The US would lose 2 Aircraft carriers, and hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of men. Taiwan would be devastated, its economy in tatters, and infrastructure severely damaged. And China's military would be severely degraded. 

The takeaway from the war-games, for China, is that they cannot win, and even if they did win, it would be at a cost that is so high, victory would be at best pyrrhic.