Khan and Singh

So the Committee of Privileges have called Raeesah Khan back. And even got her to undergo an psychiatric assessment. This was the news report:

Raeesah Khan stands by her evidence; psychiatrist says she did not have any disorder that would 'predispose' her to lying: COP report

So Khan had said that the WP leadership had advised her to continue to lie. Pritam Singh, WP sec-gen, and Leader of the Opposition had testified that she was not advised to continue to lie, and that she suffers from "disassociation", and would say things without thinking. Singh also said that he told Khan to take responsibility and ownership of the issue. Which he claims was his advice to her to tell the truth.

The other shoe drops...

Raeesah Khan testifies to privileges committee that WP leaders told her to keep to lie made in Parliament

• Speaking under oath, former MP Raeesah Khan said she was told by WP leaders to keep to a lie that she had made in Parliament 
• They also told her that if she and the party "could get away with it, there was no need to clarify the lie"
• WP volunteers who testified said the party’s disciplinary panel was "self-serving"
• This was because it was made up solely of the same WP leaders who knew Ms Raeesah had lied 
• Ms Raeesah also disputed assertions by WP chief Pritam Singh that she was ordered to clarify the truth and that she would be expelled from WP if she didn’t resign 

Open borders. Closed minds.

If you're like me and practically live on Facebook, this Monday (29 Nov 2021) was the first day of the opening of the borders between Singapore and Malaysia, and many people working in the other country can finally go home to the families.

In other related news, there is a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. 

Identified just last week, the variant now called Omicron (because WHO does not want to use "Nu" (pronounced "Nee") and "Xi". Because.) has been detected first in South Africa, and neighbouring countries, and now in Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, and Israel. South African doctors report that so far, symptoms have been mild and could be treated at home. 

Generally, viruses become more transmissible, but less deadly. Because a dead host cannot infect others (and further spread the virus).

A Response to an "Anti-Vaxxer".

"... the big question is whether the current vaccine is still appropriate given the new variants."

The prevailing variant in Singapore now is Delta. It is more transmissible. And has been shown to infect Children more. So, your belief that "Kids immune are tip-top, unlike our half-dead seniors" is a fallacy.
Also, MIS-C.
And "Long Covid."

"what's the rush?" No rush. take your time. If you do not need to work for a living, if you child do not need to go to school, if you are prepared or prefer to isolate at home, and avoid social situations, if you would like to be a "hikikomori" (and wish your family to be hikikomori too), your best bet to avoid the Delta or Omicron (if and when it becomes prevalent) variant is to withdraw from society? Or did you have another viable plan?

Omicron: Variant of Concern

 So there is a new variant (of Covid-19) now.

• The WHO on Friday named the variant Omicron, classifying it as a variant of concern
• Singapore announced restrictions for travellers who had recently been to seven African countries believed to be at risk from a new Covid-19 variant
• The variant is reported to have more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, of which four of them believed to be able to neutralise some treatment options
• More studies are need to determine whether the mutation can diminish the effectiveness of vaccines, or if it is more contagious
• Experts say if the variant spreads widely around the world, it will eventually arrive in Singapore

So, should we be worried?

How Social Media (Facebook, Google, Youtube) is not good.

"The main culprit, Haugen said, is Facebook’s desire to maximize engagement, which has turned its algorithm and platform design into a giant bullhorn for hate speech and misinformation... For clickbait farms, getting into the monetization programs is the first step, but how much they cash in depends on how far Facebook’s content-recommendation systems boost their articles. They would not thrive, nor would they plagiarize such damaging content, if their shady tactics didn’t do so well on the platform."

From "How Facebook and  Google

fund Global Misinformation."

Protecting "Gig Economy" workers

We should not treat gig economy workers as employees. (Unless they want to and their "employers" are willing to - mutual consent.) 

The current set-up provides a lot of flexibility for the workers as well the platforms (ersatz "employer") that offers the gigs. And changing that would affect that flexibility and advantage of that business model. (Which may well destroy that business model and business.)

BUT (and this is a VERY IMPORTANT BUT), these workers MUST HAVE BASIC PROTECTION!

Certainly, they need more protection than what they currently get. So there should be mandatory, basic protection for these gig economy workers.

But why? Why can't they just work in a regular job?

This assumes that regular jobs are a) still available in the future, and b) what the new economy workers want. And c) what new business models want or need.

So let's take it as a given that in the future there may be many "gig economy" jobs, and that some people may prefer "gig economy" jobs for the freedom or the fit with their life or needs.

Living with Covid. Living with Singaporeans. Living with idiots.

There is a blogpost about how Singapore is coping or not coping with the current "transition" from containing Covid, to living with Covid. And it points out (eventually) that Singapore's policies are inconsistent:

"... there are actually more than 1000 patients admitted for Covid-19. Are our admission criteria too lax? By now we should have enough data to know what are the patient profile characteristics that will give a good prognosis and those that we know will not do well later on. This data should be carefully analysed and translated into better clinical practice so that we do not admit excessively and take up too many beds. At present, out of all patients diagnosed, 1.8% require oxygen, 0.2% are in ICU and the rest are either asymptomatic or mildly ill. Given our extensive experience in the last 20 months treating Covid-19 patients, can we extract more efficiency out of the system in terms of hospitalisations of asymptomatic and mildly ill patients?
On one hand, we say we are resolute on opening up and living with the virus. On the other hand, when we test almost everyone under the sun, we seem to be also going for a zero-case disease elimination strategy. As one public health expert put it, it is like asking each and every person caught in a downpour, “Are you wet?”
Another expert put it more starkly, “the pain of transition is made worse by being stuck in applying disease elimination measures to deal with an endemic disease. Much of what is being done in the name of disease prevention is counter-productive”."

He is right. The policy is to live with it, but the measures are for zero covid strategy. And the reason for this inconsistency: Politics. Or Political reality.

Reaction to PM's speech on 9 Oct 2021

I know what the govt is trying to do, but the govt is not addressing the (irrational?) fears of the masses. Yes, we need a change of mindset,. This means a change of expectations. But this speech does not do it. You cannot change mindset, just by telling people "you need to change your mindset". To build a ship you will need to organise manpower, skills, resources, plan construction, divide up the work, allocate manpower and resources. BUT you need to start by painting a picture of where the ship will bring us, and what we can do.

On China and the Pacific Century

China has the second largest economy after the US, and is expected to be the largest economy in a few years.

Meanwhile:

As the 4 Asian Tigers grew, and as China emerged onto the global stage as a global economic player, soothsayers and prophets predicted the inevitable "Asian Century".

Subsequently, this gave way to the "Rise of China".

Deng Xiaoping didn't believe in the Asian Century. He didn't believe it would ever be.

Deng is quoted to have said, 

"Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership."

Being a Panda

A baby panda was born in Singapore!

But it belongs to China! China "rents" out pandas (usually in pairs) to various countries/zoos at about $1m a year, for usually a period of 10 years. And if those pandas have cubs, those cubs also belong to China and have to be returned to China when they are 4 years old. 

Also every baby panda born is subject to a baby panda tax of $200,000 once they reach 6 months of age. And any panda (baby or adult) that dies due to human error, the zoo will be subject to a $500,000 fine. 

If you're starting to suspect China is running a Panda business, you're right.

Home

"Home" (1998) written by Dick Lee, and sung by Kit Chan is a perennial favourite for Singaporeans.

Why?

Singaporeans like "Home" because we are NOT "rah-rah sis-boom-bah" jingoists. 

Singapore to import electricity?

[From Feb 2020. In draft for over a year.] 

So Singapore is planning to import electricity from Malaysia. 

On Facebook, this news was met with derision and incredulity.

And what I could call "patriotic anxiety".

Why is Singapore doing this? Netizens (Singaporeans) were bemused. We had just severed our dependence on Malaysia for Water. Why start to depend on Malaysia for another critical resource?

Let me explain... well, this is my interpretation.

Vaccines and Conspiracy Theories.

This may come across as an argument against the anti-vaxxers (in general) as well as the vaccine-hesitant (specific to Covid-19) in Singapore. 

That is not my intent. 

For the hardcore, "Andrew Wakefield is a saint", "Medicine is poison!" "Big Pharma is Evil!" "Vaccines causes autism!" anti-vaxxer, science cannot reach them. Logic is beyond them. Reason does not interest them. Facts bore them. They are unteachable/unreachable. They have gone down the rabbit hole, and there's no way to pull them out.

Mental Health. Resilience. Are we losing it?

First, Naomi Osaka declined to do press interviews for the French Open. For that she was sanctioned. Which caused her to withdraw from the tournament. That was in June.

Then at the Olympics this month (July 2021), Simone Biles withdrew from an Olympic gymnastic event. 

In both cases, the reason was for their mental health.

Osaka did not like the format of the press conference which could be intimidating or confrontational - at least, from her perspective.

Biles simply said that she was not confident of herself. That she did not trust herself. 

This is the woman who is so good, four moves in gymnastics are named after her.

[This is Katelyn Ohashi (video). She outscored Simone Biles a few years ago. But she left the sports after injury and some incident of body-shaming. ]

So when she says she's not confident, that she doesn't trust herself, it probably means something.

More "unlinked" cases as more get vaccinated.

 Expect more "unlinked" cases.

The fact is the Delta variant is more transmissible and is able to make "breakthrough" infections - infecting those already vaccinated.

This is because the Delta variant has a viral load 1000 times more than the previous variants. 

Mandating Vaccination

Will the Singapore Government do that?

Well, it has in the past.

In 1962, the Singapore government passed a law making Diphtheria immunisation mandatory for children under 1. 

Prior to that, diphtheria imunisation had been available for 12 years and parents could voluntarily choose to immunise their child. 

However, the take-up rate was low and not enough to protect our children. 

And diphtheria was killing our children. I believe the fatality rate was about 5% of those infected. 

And it was preventable!

And the immunisation was free!

So, driven to desperation, when moral suasion and soft sell didn't work, the Singapore government resorted to legislating the problem away.

Then.

60 years later... today?

I've seen some comments on social media where anti-vaxxers or the vaccine-hesitant had said, if the govt is so sure about the safety of the vaccine and the benefits, then why don't they make it mandatory? 

They seem to be taunting the govt to act by decree.

Are Chinese Vaccines Effective?

Are doubts about Chinese vaccines another form of China-bashing or racism, or commercial competition? Or is there some truth to those doubts? Here are some of my "research".

Video: After Chinese Vaccination: https://youtu.be/hdTYw82kpDk

At about 1:13, the video shows the number of new cases in each country as they rolled out the Moderna/ Pfizer/AstraZeneca vaccines in their respective countries. The number of infection falls as more of the population is vaccinated.

Then, at about 1:37, the video presents the new cases in countries using the SinoPharm vaccine. The pattern (below) is vastly different.

The Future of Covid19 II - The near future (my thoughts on April 2020)

[I started this in April 2020, as Singapore entered our "circuit breaker" (a.k.a. lockdown). Along with most of the rest of the world. The news were depressing, and mostly pointed to what looked like the end of civilisation as we knew it. So I wrote and edited this draft, but as the pandemic seemed to have no end. I had no end for this piece. I just kept writing and re-writing. There may be no end to this pandemic. Or it will become endemic. With intermittent flare up of epidemics. Who knows?]

Some time ago, which seemed like a very long time ago, I had tried to consider what is the long-term effect of Covid19 as it spread across the world and what might happen to it - would it be defeated and die out never to bother us again? Would it become endemic like the cold or seasonal like the flu?

Would our "familiarity" with the virus lead to some herd immunity and lessen its toll on human lives?

Would we come to live (and die) with it?

Teddy bear abandoned on street in Turin, Italy (Photo: Reuters)

The business of Air Travel after Covid

There was a news report about how SIA may be in a good position to gain market share in the post-pandemic air travel business.

Firstly, the business of air travel is going to change fundamentally.

Pre-pandemic, airlines and the industry was powered by business and first class travel. The pandemic has changed business travel. Zoom and WFH has shown that you can meet online and it can be as good as being there in person. Companies will scrutinise business travel - can a zoom or conference call achieve the same effect? 

Business travel is going to be reduced, and with fewer business travellers, there will be fewer flights, and with fewer flights, there will be fewer seats in economy, to fill with leisure travellers. 

Yes, there is pent-up demand for leisure travel, but this segment of the market is VERY PRICE SENSITIVE. Those low low airfares pre-pandemic, are not likely to endure. Sure, when planes fly again, airlines may offer promotional, cut-throat airfares. but it will not last.

Short Explanation: Nuclear Power

The World is being polluted by carbon (specifically, CO2) which is a waste from burning fossil fuels. And as the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, it warms traps more heat (from the sun) and warms up the earth, and melts the polar ice, and causes sea level to rise, and extreme weather conditions.

You should know this. If you don't, your education is shockingly inadequate.

Will China Grow Rich before it Grows Old?

 Short answer: China is growing old. This is inevitable. In 1980, there were 3 times more people in their twenties than there were people in their sixties. 

Now, the number of people in their sixties is almost as many as the number of people in their twenties. And there are fewer younger people (below 20) and more people in their fifties that will soon be in their sixties.

This is inevitable.

But, China could get rich, right?

Tang Ping, Soshoku danshi, and opting out of the rat race.

I heard about the phenomena of "herbivore men" or soshoku danshi in Japan. These may be otaku who decide that sex and relationships are just too complicated. Or, more positively, they are the Satori Generation, who have "achieved the Buddhist enlightened state free from material desires".

I did not realise that this phenomena is also present in Hong Kong.

In Korea, there is the Sampo Generation. And the Strawberry Generation in Taiwan.

And in China, some men (and maybe women too?) have decided that in the face of unrelenting social and economic pressure to succeed, and the irrepressible rat race and work pressure, the best resistance, is to "lie flat" (tang ping). 

Denying (Cancelling?) Joe Biden Communion

 From a newsletter:

4. Pope Francis, above, warned conservative U.S. bishops to back down from their push to deny communion to politicians supportive of abortion rights.

That includes President Biden, the first Roman Catholic to occupy the Oval Office in 60 years.

Despite the Vatican’s remarkably public stop sign, the bishops will most likely force a debate this week. The effort could shatter their facade of unity with Rome and set what church historians consider a dangerous precedent for bishops’ conferences across the globe.

Would China Invade Taiwan?

With all the posturing, and aggressive actions by China, all the war-mongering rhetoric and threats, the world has been wondering: are we on the brink of war? Is China preparing to take Taiwan by force? And if so, would the US come to Taiwan's defence?

Active and actual war with China (PRC) is unlikely. (Tho PLA could continue to up the irritation level with incursions into sea and air space.) For several reasons.

On the Importance of Taiwan

At about 12:36 in the video below, Taiwan is described as "the most important country in the world".

(Yes, 'country'. But I'm not John Cena - see below - and I don't have a movie to promote in China, so I'm not apologising.) 

Anyway, the earlier part of the video covers China's efforts to become a chip superpower.

It failed.

Singapore's Success - 50 Shades of Great?

I saw a book, "Fifty Secrets of Singapore's Success" which is a collection of 50 essays by prominent Singaporeans (I guess), and edited by Tommy Koh.

The book was an idea by Tommy Koh. He was asked what was the secret of Singapore's success by some undergrads in the US and Mexico. And (not having an easy answer then) he said that there was not one single secret, but he will think about it (and ask other smarter people) and maybe write a book (or edit one).

A diplomat, tactful, and can think on his feet. I really admire Tommy Koh. 

Then, recently, I saw this video: "15 Incredibly Smart Things Singapore Got Right":

Heng Swee Keat passes on the PMship

 So April 8 2021 was a day of shock for Singapore.

The presumptive PM-apparent/PM in waiting/PM designate Mr Heng Swee Keat announced that he would not be taking up the PMship after all, and would rather another younger person be the PM-designate. His reason, or his publicly stated reason was that he was 60 years old this year, and by the time the Covid-19 crisis was settled he would be close to his mid-60s. He would have limited time to provide leadership and stability for Singapore.

In other words, he had already been selected as the next PM of Singapore. If he had just coasted along, taking things one day at a time, and just making sure that he doesn't screw up big time, he would be Singapore's 4th PM.

There was a survey on the political stance of Singaporeans:

"While almost half of Singaporeans were somewhat undecided on their political position, nearly a third leaned towards the left, outnumbering the one-fifth who preferred right-wing politics, a survey has found."

The approach of LKY and the other founders has (historically) been pragmatic. LKY actually started out more left-wing. It was in a sense practical, pragmatic, and a response to a colonial government. However over time, and when the PAP became the ruling party, the tactics of the opposition became irrelevant, and the PAP had to learn how to govern and to use the tactics of the ruling party. And divested itself of the sackcloth of the opposition.

And as the ruling party, the PAP had to adopt policies that WORKED for Singapore, and to abandon frivolous and impractical ideologies. And the touchstone of the PAP government has been to ask, "does it work?" and "would this work better?"

If not Covid19...

Some people have observed, that since wearing masks, and observing heightened hygiene their children have had fewer or no minor illnesses. One noted that his child used to fall sick every month since attending childcare. Now, no. 

I don't have any statistics to back up this observation, but fewer colds, and coughs, runny noses, since all this mask-wearing.

This mask-wearing might have something to it after all... maybe we can't eradicate Covid19, but maybe... If no one is falling sick from colds, if the transmission of the cold virus is broken, if the virus dies out...

Maybe we can't eradicate Covid19 with masks alone. But maybe, the common cold? Not as deadly, but... something.