GE2025 results
6 May 2025
The question Singaporeans are asking is, "will the PAP ever lose control of Singapore?"
The PAP has had over 60 years of learning how to "hold onto power". Rightfully, and with (what some might call), "questionable" tactics and strategy.
Singaporeans may be broadly categorised into "Pro-Pap", and "Pro-opposition".
Some analysts suggests that the pro-PAP Singaporeans may account for 40% to 60% of voters.
The pro-opposition, or "any party as long as its not PAP" segment may account for 20%, to as much as 30%.
So that leaves "Swing Voters" at 10% to 40%.
When I was younger, say in 2011, I was pro-opposition. I found the dominance of the PAP to be unbearable or intolerable.
Anyway, this GE 2025 results was predictable. Maybe some pro-opposition hoped for a better showing from the opposition parties. But look at their plans:
The greatest challenge came from the WP with 26 seats contested.
Even if they won all the seats they contested, they would not be able to form the govt. They would not even be able to deny the PAP a super-majority to stop the PAP from say, changing the constitution.
The best the opposition can hope for is if enough of them win to deny the PAP a majority and deny them from forming the govt. And then the opposition parties can form a coalition government.
But no.
The WP won two GRC and an SMC sending 10 MPs to parliament to ask questions.
Two more WP candidates will be admitted as Non-Constituency MPs (NCMPs) for being the best loser.
Of the rest of the opposition candidates, 27 lost their deposits ($13,500 each) for failing to get at least 12.5% of the votes.
Video: Why 4 Parties lost $364,500 (in election deposits)
The video above concludes that the smaller opposition parties are largely irrelevant, has no "ground game" and no enduring and clear policies.These "mosquito parties" (as Bertha Henson has labelled them) have neither the organisational resources nor the expertise, nor experience to win an election, let alone governed the country if they in fact, win.
The point is other than the WP, the Progress Singapore Party (PSP), and the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), the other opposition parties are quite irrelevant and a waste of time.
The fact that the PAP has the resources and the logistical reach and support to contest in ALL 97 seats with the intent to win all the seats (or at least a majority of them) to form the govt speaks to their capability. The fact that NONE of the opposition parties can even muster enough candidates to contest at least half+1 seat to (perhaps) win a majority and be able to form the government is an indictment of the opposition. All the opposition wants is to get into parliament and snipe at the PAP, or in their words, "ask honest questions".
To be fair, the opposition realises their limitations and do not aspire to form the govt nor to lead the country at the moment.
The opposition parties are, at best, still trying to find their identity, their relevance, and their strategy. They have no hope of beating the PAP to form the government at this time.
Lee Kuan Yew (and by extension the PAP) believed in renewal of leadership. So the PAP has a recruitment programme, colloquially called the "lim kopi" (literally, "drink coffee") process, where potential future MPs were invited for coffee and a chat with PAP leaders, and suitable candidates were identified and recruited. So the PAP has a steady pool of potential candidates to stand for elections. And this is the reason, there are no capable members for the opposition. The PAP have recruited all the good ones! (Except for the few good ones that decide that they would rather throw in their lot with the opposition.)In contrast, the opposition parties (AFAIK) has no such process because 1) passionate revolutionaries/ rebels and disgruntled citizens tend to self-select and present themselves to the opposition parties 2) the opposition parties do not have the extensive resources to find and recruit potential candidate like the PAP, and 3) those presenting themselves as candidates are few and far between, and 4) beggars can't be choosers. So the quality of the candidates for MP may sometimes be questionable.
It COULD be said that anyone below the age of 35, who is NOT anti-PAP/Pro-opposition in Singapore has no heart, and anyone above 35 who is not pro-PAP has no brains. So at opposition rallies, you will find a lot of young idealistic Singaporeans (and a few old ones who are young at heart) cheering the opposition enthusiastically. Meanwhile the older Singaporeans (with more brains than heart) are staying at home, enjoying the prosperity that the PAP had wrought for Singapore and Singaporeans, and just waiting to cast their vote for continued prosperity, stability, and economic growth.
If you go to an opposition rally (say, one of the Workers' Party rally) and compared the enthusiasm and passion of the audience against that of those at a PAP rally, you would believe that the PAP was going to be overthrown at the polls. And you would be wrong. Singaporeans from ALL over the island come to the WP rally to cheer them on, to hear their words of change and support the WP. However, on polling day, only those living in their constituency gets to vote for the WP.
Lawrence Wong, Singapore's 4th PM in 60 years, has spoken about the challenges facing Singapore in a "de-globalised" world caused by the insipid Donald, and how the world has changed. That tells me the PAP is aware of the challenges ahead. Meanwhile, during the campaigning, the opposition is still harping on their need to be returned to parliament, so they can snipe at the PAP. I know how I should vote (already did!).
The elections, this and all future GEs, are for the PAP to lose, not for the Opposition to win.
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