Opposition rallies during election (GE) campaigning tends to draw large crowds (video above).
Supporters of the opposition party (or disgruntled Singaporeans who are Anti-PAP) will attend opposition rallies FROM ALL OVER THE ISLAND.
And they will cheer and applaud the opposition candidates passionately, and will see all the support for the opposition, and will imagine that come polling day, the votes will be counted and the PAP will (finally!) be voted out.
BUT... on polling day, ONLY the residents of that constituency can vote, and only their votes will be counted, and the opposition supporters will again be devastated that the PAP was NOT voted out... How can this be? Have you seen the support at the opposition rallies? And the weak turnout at the PAP rallies?
The answer, and reason: Self-selection bias. The people who go to opposition rallies are those with grievances. Those with no (serious) grievances and would vote PAP anyway, are at home watching TV, and living the good life that the PAP has provided. They don't scream and shout, and have nothing to complain about. But come polling day, they will drag themselves out of bed and to the polling station (cos voting is compulsory), and vote for the status quo (i.e. PAP). And the PAP govt will continue.
One opposition candidate (Chee Soon Juan) has started a petition to extend the campaigning period -- currently about 9 days -- so that the opposition will have more time to make their case and convince voters. He is barking up the wrong tree. He should petition to make voting voluntary (i.e. non-compulsory). Then the PAP supporters will sleep in on Polling Day, and pass on the voting. And the anti-PAP/Pro-opposition will rise up and vote and they will get the revolution that they dream of.
And the PAP would have been voted out because of...?
Self-selection bias.
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