Tuesday, 24 March 2020

Update and Comment on Covid19

The stats as at 24 Mar 2020 0121 GMT, Italy is second with almost 64,000 cases, and US is firmly in 3rd with almost 44,000 cases (update: 46,000+ at 0446 GMT) after over 10,000 new cases were identified.

China of course still has the most cases (over 81,000), though their death toll has plateaued at 3,200.

Italy had long surpassed China's death with over 6000 deaths as of this writing.

US deaths are still relatively low at over 500.

Germany has over 29,000 cases but they have managed to keep their deaths to just over 120.

US is probably on track to over take Italy and China for total number of cases. They probably already have more cases, just not detected or identified.

They have fewer deaths, whether this is actual (due to better healthcare, etc) or an artefact of sketchy testing and detection, or outright lies (Trump!) it is not possible to say, but lets give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that their healthcare can still cope and the fewer deaths are quite correct.

This may change when the numbers of serious cases increase drastically.

And the healthcare system is overstretched and stressed.

There are 150,000 ventilators in all US hospitals with another 13,000 in strategic reserves. However one estimate is that the demand for ventilators may hit 950,000 at peak. Which means 780,000 patients needing ventilators will NOT be able to get one.

And hundreds of thousands could die.

Meanwhile, the economy is dying. Airlines are in dire straits.

But this is good for the environment!

And Trump will unlikely to be re-elected.

Biden is going to be a shoo-in, barring any other unforeseen incidents (like Biden getting Covid19).


No comments: