Oct 1, 2023 (first drafted)
ChatGPT answer:
The People's Action Party (PAP) has been the dominant political party in Singapore since the country gained independence in 1965. However, like any political party, there are several factors and scenarios that could lead to the PAP losing a general election in Singapore. Here are some key factors that could contribute to such an outcome:
Economic Downturn: A significant economic downturn or recession could lead to voter dissatisfaction with the PAP, as they have long been associated with Singapore's economic success. If the economy falters, voters may be more inclined to consider alternative parties.
Policy Failures: If the PAP's policies fail to address the needs and concerns of the population, it could erode their support. This might include issues related to healthcare, housing affordability, education, or environmental concerns.
Corruption Scandals: Any allegations of corruption or misconduct within the PAP could severely damage their credibility and public trust. A major corruption scandal could sway voters away from the party.
Rising Opposition: If the opposition parties in Singapore unite and present a strong, coherent alternative to the PAP, they could gain more seats in the Parliament and challenge the PAP's dominance.
Demographic Shifts: Changes in the demographic makeup of the population could alter the political landscape. Younger voters, in particular, may have different priorities and values compared to older generations, potentially leading to shifts in support.
Civil Unrest or Protests: Widespread civil unrest or protests could lead to public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of such situations, potentially impacting the PAP's electoral prospects.
International Factors: Global events and developments, such as changes in the geopolitical landscape, international conflicts, or trade disputes, could influence public sentiment and affect the PAP's electoral fortunes.
Election Campaign Strategy: The effectiveness of the PAP's election campaign strategy and messaging will play a crucial role. A poorly executed campaign or missteps by PAP candidates could swing the vote in favor of the opposition.
Voter Turnout: Voter turnout can significantly impact election outcomes. If there is a significant drop in PAP supporters' turnout and a surge in opposition voters' participation, it could lead to an upset. [This is not pertinent to Singapore, as Voting is compulsory. So voter turnout would not be a significant variable.]
Electoral Reforms: Changes in electoral laws or reforms that level the playing field between the ruling party and opposition parties could impact the outcome of elections.
It's important to note that the PAP has maintained its dominance in Singapore politics for decades through careful management of the country's development, effective governance, and strong support from a significant portion of the population. However, as political landscapes can change, the PAP's continued electoral success is not guaranteed, and they must remain responsive to the evolving needs and concerns of Singaporean voters.
ChatGPT's answer is quite generic, and suffers from lack of specific knowledge and understanding of Singapore's political system and landscape. Let's go through the factors.
Economic Downturn and Policy Failures
Since the ruling party gets to decide when to call an election, the PAP (or the ruling party) can call one just after great economic news or policy success. Or if there is an economic downturn to delay calling an election. Although there is a 5 year time limit after the last election. So, if the election has not been called for 5 years, the PAP (or ruling government) must call the election before the end of 5 years regardless of the economy. BUT, it is also possible that in a severe economic downturn, there may be a "flight to certainty" and voters may choose PAP to lead them out of trouble. A crisis is no time to take chances with an untested political party.
Corruption Scandal
Iswaran's corruption charges will not derail the PAP. The PAP had had other corruption and scandals in the past, but the PAP has always dealt with such scandals transparently, and forthrightly.
Rising Opposition
Only the Workers Party is close to unseating the PAP in Parliament, winning two Group Representation Constituency (GRC), with a total of 10 seats won. But there are over 90 seats in Parliament. So the Worker's Party is still quite a ways from seizing 50% +1 seat to form the govt. While the Workers Party has a coherent long term strategy and has steadily increased their seats in parliament, other opposition parties tend to be parties of Ego and personality, with no coherent strategy or incremental objectives for progressing and winning elections, with occasional flashes of victory in single seat wards. Thus it is unlikely for the Workers Party to join forces with other opposition parties to present a united front (as other parties are not on the same page), to challenge the PAP. It is also unlikely for an opposition or oppositions to present a feasible challenge to the PAP in the foreseeable future (say, the next two or three general elections).
Demographic Shifts
This may be the most unpredictable factor. The PAP's support over the years have steadily decreased. One theory is that as the older generation, who lived through the early years when Singapore was poor and under-developed and saw Singapore progressed from Third World to First in one generation, is dying out. While the younger Generation has only experienced Singapore as a First World Nation, and has been exposed to foreign political ideologies and ideals. And the eroding support of PAP is evidence of this growing idealistic younger generation yearning for "greater democracy". These voters may want a change from the usual PAP offering, and this may lead to the PAP being voted out of power, as younger voters are persuaded that alternative parties would provide them with a more democratic government.
Civil Unrest, Protests, International Factors
These are "black swan" events that ChatGPT threw in to cover its virtual ass. Recent global events include the COVID19 pandemic, HK protests against China's creeping control over HK, Invasion of Ukraine, Arab Spring, the Israel-Gaza war, China's dispute with ASEAN nations regarding the South China Sea and islets. Singapore and the PAP govt navigated these events calmly. But yes, there is always the possibility that the next event might affect Singapore and Singaporeans more drastically, leading to the overturning of the PAP govt. Singapore is unlikely to have an "Arab Spring" type event because there is no Spring in Singapore. I cannot imagine how, but anything is possible.
Election Campaign Strategy - missteps.
While the PAP is very experienced at campaign strategies, they are not immune to strategic missteps. But the PAP has a strong core support of about 60% of voters, with another 10% of "swing voters" who would vacillate between PAP and a credible opposition. These are probably younger, idealistic, or disillusioned voters who wonders what an alternative govt would do for Singapore. But the true strength of a hard core "core" supporters, is that missteps tend to be forgiven, if the PAP corrects course immediately. Voters who are likely to be affected by strategic missteps are those who are already supporting the opposition or are anti-PAP, or are the 10% of swing voters.
Voter Turnout and Electoral Reforms
As noted above, voting in Singapore is compulsory. This, I believe, is the PAP's greatest insurance. The PAP's supporters tends to the older, less activist, less idealistic, more practical and realistic, and tend to go with the status quo, i.e. the PAP govt. So left to their own devices, these older voters may well decide that the PAP is a shoo-in and they don't need to vote. Voting is for the idealistic youngsters who think they can make a difference. Given their natural inclinations, the older voters may well stay at home, while the younger, idealistic voters turn up in force to vote for the opposition.
Anecdotally, a family member of an elderly who was bedridden asked how the elderly could vote. He was told that there was NO means by which the elderly could vote except to come down to the polling station to vote. As the elderly was bedridden (immobile), this was not possible. What penalties would befall this elderly for failing to vote? Well, the voter's name would be struck from the register, and he or she would not be able to vote in future elections. Which, to the family member was an acceptable outcome.
So, one possible Electoral Reform might be to allow mail-in voting (or other alternatives) to "harvest" the votes of the bedridden or immobile (or those with mobility issues). But this might well be to the advantage of the incumbent PAP. Electoral Reforms that would "level the playing field" may be less likely, or may well benefit the PAP more than the opposition.
The Young the the Restless
Generally, the older generation who experienced the years of the PAP (and Lee Kuan Yew) governing Singapore from "Third World to First" would have strong support for PAP.
 |
| An old lady paying her respects to Lee Kuan Yew as his cortege passed by (2015) |
However, this generation is dying off. And younger, more idealistic Singaporeans are more willing to consider alternatives.
As the saying goes: "Anyone under 30 who is not a Liberal, has no heart. Anyone over 30 who is not a Conservative has no brain."
Or, Idealism is for the young. Pragmatism is for the old. But I may be projecting. I was Anti-PAP in my youth. Then I grew older. I saw the world. I saw Western Democracy. I realised that what Singapore has was a good thing, and a unique thing.
Here's a cynical but objective illustration: Young people trying to get a home for themselves complain that housing is very expensive in Singapore. Which is objectively true.
Each year, approximately 50,000 young people are looking for their own home. And may find themselves priced out of the market.
However, there are about 1 million public housing flats already owned and occupied by older Singaporeans.
Can the PAP make policies to make housing more affordable for 50,000 young Singaporeans? What would this mean for the value of the 1 million flats already owned and occupied by older Singaporeans?
The young Singaporeans would usually pair up (get married) and with two incomes would be able to afford a home. Then they will grow up and grow older, and take pride in the fact that their homes have appreciated in value. And they will shift their allegiance towards the govt that provided the appreciating value of their home. They will vote for the PAP to keep the values of their homes high.
Making policy that would reduce the price of flats to assuage the young house-hunter (50,000 of them), while reducing the value of flats for 1 million home owners is not good politics.
Which also suggests that one way the PAP could lose votes is if the housing market collapses resulting is lower home values for the majority of home owners.
No comments:
Post a Comment