Singaporeans know this story.
How Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in 1978, saw how a predominantly Chinese society could be rich even as it is governed strictly, and saw in Singapore, the future of China.
While China wanted to learn from Singapore, and in fact, hundreds of official trips to study the "Singapore System" were made by mid-level officials, the fact is that China and Chinese officials saw in Singapore what they wanted to see in Singapore (or saw Singapore's solutions through ideological lenses. This is very normal.) And so "transplanted" the policies and practices without fully understanding the fundamentals that made Singapore a success. For example, the lesson from Singapore's fight against corruption was distilled as "the importance of committed leadership", and ignored the significance (and importance) of the rule of law in Singapore, and how the law also applies to leaders and leadership.
Thus, there is a hypothesis that China has not fully understood the Singapore Model.
To be fair though, what they did understand or what they did transplant from Singapore to China did result in about 4 decades of progress and growth for the Chinese economy (with about 2 decades of an inflating housing bubble).
Deng and his successors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao led China into successive years of growth.
Lee Kuan Yew speaks of Deng.
South China Morning Post on Deng's Role in Transforming China:
Then Xi Jinping took over from around 2012/2013.
Enter the Pooh
Since Xi came to power, he
- Used anti-corruption campaign to suppress opposition and potential challengers to his leadership
- Pursued more aggressive foreign policy, including against Singapore
- Asserted China's claims in the South China Sea encompassed by the nine-dash line
- Actively prosecuted the Sino-Indian border dispute
- And sought to expand China's influence with the Belt and Road Initiative
I gathered that Xi was not enamoured with Lee Kuan Yew's role as "advisor" to Chinese Leaders from Deng, to Jiang, to Hu. Though he had nice words to say on Lee's passing.
Or perhaps Xi had his own agenda, and he felt that the Singapore Model (as the Chinese understood it) was flawed and not exactly what China needed.
Can we discern his agenda from his achievements since Lee's passing?
2015 Nov 7 Xi meets Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore to explore peaceful reunification with Taiwan2016 Terrex incident (this may not be Xi's doing, directly)2017 Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, Xi's Second Term, Xiong'an city announced2018 "National Sword" from Jan 2018 - ban "imports" of plastic for recycling.2019 HK protests against extradition laws2020 Three Red Lines, Jack Ma's critique of Financial Regulation - suspension of IPO of Ant Group.2021 "Common Prosperity"; crackdown on the Tech and Private Tutoring sector, reining in the tech sector and destroying the private tutoring industry.
2022 Replacing economic-trained leaders in high-level positions with loyalist (non-economists).
(Perhaps, also, the 2014 Umbrella movement in HK demanding free and fair elections.)
Xi does not subscribe to Deng's philosophy of "to get rich is glorious". Perhaps he was well aware that China's growth was a lie over the last 20 years. And that China was not as strong or as rich or as stable as it seemed,
Xi also does not believe in (economic) stimulus. Perhaps he feels that stimulus only serves to enrich the already rich (e.g. Jack Ma) at the expense of the poor, widening the wealth gap and inequality.
Xi also has set himself the task of unifying China (i.e. "re-unite Taiwan"). To this end, he has focused a lot of resources in building up the military, and having strategies to counter the intervention by the US.
When Youth unemployment hit over 20%, and there was a meme or trend for youths to "lie flat", and basically give up on the "Chinese Dream" (whatever that may be), Xi's response was to tell the Chinese people to endure hardship ("Eat bitterness") for the greater glory of China...?
However, most recently, he has changed his tune. Perhaps realising that there are fundamental issues that will not be papered over with official pronouncements, he changed his directive to the CCP. He now wants new business entities, new business models, and to cultivate new professions and new sources of job creation.
This after several years of antagonising the West (and Western Multi-nationals), and destroying trust (in China), or building mistrust about China's intention, evidenced by falling Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), the path for China has two options.
China can try to woo back the foreign MNCs and their FDI, to create jobs in China. Or China can try to create jobs within China - new businesses, new business models, new professions, and new sources of job creation, as Xi has pronounced.
Singapore's (and so Lee Kuan Yew's) approach was to establish Singapore's trust and credibility, so that MNCs and foreign investors will have confidence investing in Singapore, creating jobs in Singapore, and creating new jobs and new professions in Singapore.
But Singapore is a small country and we are not too proud to woo foreign investors.
China is, of course, a much larger country, with hundreds of times more people, and is a rising power. It would not do for China to kowtow to foreigners to woo their investments? The Century of Humiliation is OVER! Xi will not continue the humiliation. Deng and his "hide your capacities, and bide your time" can go to hell. Xi is hiding nothing, and China's time is NOW!
At least as far as Xi is concerned.
But, Xi's presidency and administration of China (or mismanagement) has spooked the rich Chinese.
Video: Why China's Millionaires are leaving.
Two reason: The Chinese Economy, and Geo-political tension.
Wealth is attracted to wealth (and to places welcoming to wealth). The Chinese Economy is in a downturn, and not expected to recover. At the same time, there are geo-political tensions and risks as Xi signals his intent to forceable reunite Taiwan.
The detention of Jack Ma did not assure the high net worth individuals as to their safety and security.
The exodus of millionaires will further stressed the Chinese Economy. Millionaires are most capable of "voting with their feet" - leaving places that are deemed "unsafe" or unwelcoming, and heading to where they feel safe and welcomed.
Xi's recent policies have alienated the wealthy. And that is not good for China.
The South China Sea and China's assertion of sovereignty over the maritime space.
China's claim over the South China Sea is self-supported (only China has the ambiguous "papers" or documents to support their claim of "historic ownership" over the bulk of the South China Sea encompassed by their "Nine-dash lines". And China has ratified the United Nations Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) which established the limits of the Territorial Sea and the Exclusive Economic Zone. China's claim do not comply with UNCLOS.
Video: Philippines rights vs China's claim in the South China Sea.
Robert Beckman notes:
China seems to have been unable to understand that Unclos was intended to establish a universal body of rules that is to be interpreted and applied by all state parties in the same manner, notwithstanding their historical and cultural traditions.
For example, China did not seem to understand that Unclos provides that coastal states have the sovereign right to explore and exploit all of the living and non-living resources in the 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) measured from their mainland coast, and that it was not compatible with the Unclos for China to assert "historic rights" to resources in the EEZ of other states based on its "nine-dash line" map.
"The 'nine-dash line' is totally at odds with Unclos, but China is trying various ways to use other international laws to provide a legal basis for the 'nine-dash line'. Unclos is a set of relatively modern international laws where almost all the countries in the world, including China, took part in negotiating and formulating. Ironically, to avoid Unclos, China is turning to rely on traditional international law - an imperialist version of the law which it criticises frequently."
He said that a senior diplomat from South-east Asia told him privately that "China may not be a great nation yet, but it already has 'great- state autism'".
"Great-state autism" is a concept raised by US military strategist Edward Luttwak in his book The Rise Of China vs The Logic Of Strategy. It means that the big countries do not know how to adjust their actions appropriately due to their insensitivity to the concerns of other countries.
In Asean diplomatic circles in recent years, one can hear from time to time South-east Asian officials complaining of the "arrogance" of Chinese diplomats. Even former colonial power Britain grumbled quietly of having to "put up with" China. The British media reported last week that before Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Britain, Queen Elizabeth II felt that the attitude of a Chinese official making the security arrangements was "rude".
Video: Malaysia's rights in the South China Sea vs China's claims
But it is wrong.
Xi is wrong.
And the reality is slowly beginning to sink in.
Lee Kuan Yew on Xi Jinping.
Demographics
[Addendum:
Xiong'an - Xi's pet project/Legacy Project
In 2017, Xi Jinping announced the Xiong'an New Area Project, a City of the Future, following the blueprint of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and its success.
Xiong'an would decant some of the "non-essential functions" of the capital, and relieve some of the pressures on Beijing. However, like every top-down, centrally planned, city, its growth and development is not organic and subject to politics and other considerations. Xiong'an may well be Xi's political legacy, just as Shenzhen is Deng Xiaoping's.
The timing of Xiong'an's development is inopportune. At the tail end of China's economic growth, as FDI is declining (at least in 2022 and 2023), it would be unable to ride the wave of investments that Shenzhen did at the cusp of China's economic growth.
Xiongan represents the aspiration of Chinese leader Xi Jinping... But five years on from its launch, all evidence suggests that Xiongan’s enduring function will be as a political legacy-building project for Xi, as he seeks to redraw the role of capital in China’s political economy.
Xiong'An New Area - abandoned.
Xiong'an may well be Xi's Folly.
But lots of leaders want to start anew with a new capital or new administrative town. Time will tell.
Is Xi a Dictator/Authoritarian?
Three Characteristics of Dictatorship/Authoritarian/Autocracy:
1) lack of transparency
2) Corruption
3) Nobody tells the truth
Xi has created an information vacuum around himself. Or so it seems. He has surrounded himself with his supporters (i.e. "Yes" men), and eliminated all possible opposition. He has weaponised the fight against corruption to target his opponents, leaving his supporters to reap the harvest of corruption? And his supporters/yes men tell him what he wants to hear.
How Xi Jingping's authoritarianism is killing China's economy (DW News)
Xi: Why China's Economy is Failing
1:53 Xi's Totalitarian and Authoritarianism
2:26 Eliminating other economic planners, and promoting "Core Common Prosperity".
5:45 Xi extend control over (guts) the financial sector (leading to drop in FDI?)
9:00 The Housing Problem, and how Xi exacerbated (demolished) it. (Loss of 8 trillion yuan).
12:00 The "Pre-sales model" of home sales. A modified Ponzi scheme?
15:45 "Made in China 2025" Initiative. Focus on higher value goods. Attempt to catch up with technology. But foreign investors just moved out. EVs? "Over-capacity". Alienate foreign investors. Led to Trade Wars.
18:06 Impoverishing local govt. Local govt debt burdens.
21:00 Youth unemployment high. Consumer market weak.
Video: China may become "pushy" and "aggressive": Lee Kuan Yew
Lee Kuan Yew on Xi Jinping.
How should one assess Xi Jinping?He has had a tougher life than Hu Jintao. His father was rusticated, and so was he. He took it in stride, and worked his way up. It has not been smooth sailing for him. His life experiences must have hardened him. He is reserved—not in the sense that he will not talk to you, but in the sense that he will not betray his likes and dislikes. There is always a pleasant smile on his face, whether or not you have said something that annoyed him. He has iron in his soul, more than Hu Jintao, who ascended the ranks without experiencing the trials and tribulations that Xi endured. I would put him in Nelson Mandela’s class of persons. He is a person with enormous emotional stability who does not allow his personal misfortunes or sufferings to affect his judgment. He is impressive.
Demographics
Demographically, China has two problems.
Ageing population China is ageing. The one-Child policy has resulted in fewer babies and these are unable to adequately replace the ageing workforce. These ageing workers are facing a retirement with little or no savings and pension. These retirees will become a burden to the govt. If the govt shoulders the burden.
Youth unemployment Xi burst the Property bubble, and that sector is now crashing. Which means no jobs for graduates as property agents. Xi has also cracked down on the Private Tuition market, which was a source of temporary (or longer) employment for graduates. China would like to see more qualified youth be employed in higher eng jobs suited to their qualifications. However, everything that Xi has done has alienated Foreign Direct Investments, and made China uninvestible. So those higher end jobs are not coming.
[Addendum:
chatGPT:
Was Singapore the inspiration for Deng Siaopeng's transformation of China?
Was Singapore the inspiration for Deng Siaopeng's transformation of China?
ChatGPT
Singapore, under the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, is often cited as an inspiration for Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms in China. Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in 1978 and was impressed by its rapid economic development and efficient governance despite its small size and lack of natural resources. Singapore's emphasis on export-oriented industrialization, infrastructure development, education, and attracting foreign investment served as a model for Deng's opening up and reform policies in China.
However, it's important to note that while Singapore provided some inspiration, Deng Xiaoping's reforms were primarily shaped by domestic factors and the unique circumstances of China at that time. Deng's pragmatic approach to economic reform, which included elements of capitalism within a socialist framework, was driven by the need to modernize China's economy, increase its productivity, and raise living standards for its people. So while Singapore may have influenced certain aspects of China's economic transformation, the reforms undertaken by Deng Xiaoping were ultimately tailored to fit China's specific context and needs.]
Addendum (late June 2024):
Singapore, under the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, is often cited as an inspiration for Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms in China. Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore in 1978 and was impressed by its rapid economic development and efficient governance despite its small size and lack of natural resources. Singapore's emphasis on export-oriented industrialization, infrastructure development, education, and attracting foreign investment served as a model for Deng's opening up and reform policies in China.
However, it's important to note that while Singapore provided some inspiration, Deng Xiaoping's reforms were primarily shaped by domestic factors and the unique circumstances of China at that time. Deng's pragmatic approach to economic reform, which included elements of capitalism within a socialist framework, was driven by the need to modernize China's economy, increase its productivity, and raise living standards for its people. So while Singapore may have influenced certain aspects of China's economic transformation, the reforms undertaken by Deng Xiaoping were ultimately tailored to fit China's specific context and needs.]
Addendum (late June 2024):
Video explaining how China is in a trade war with the US/Europe. The graphic from 8:48 explains China's "failure" - being stuck at manufacturing:
Addendum 1 Jul 2024
At 3:42, the reason for Deng's SE Asia visit was revealed - to garner support against the Soviet and Vietnam. However, there was the problem of China's attempt to undermine the governments in SE Asia with radio broadcasts and supplies of arms to insurgents.
At 4:44 Lee bluntly confronted Deng. Deng eventually asked, what Lee wanted China to do. And proceeded to stop the support of insurgents and the radio broadcast.
This shows Deng's openness and ability to review and relinquish unhelpful and unproductive efforts.
Compare this to China's current efforts to antagonise her neighbours in the South China Sea and other areas (India, Tibet, Japan, etc). China, under Xi, seems to be acting out of over-confidence and arrogance, than diplomatically, and with a view to solving problems or issues.
[Sept 22 addendum: Video: Why Xi is renationalising China's Economy.
]
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