Monday, 9 May 2016

US Presidential Elections - Prediction and Counter Predictions

So it is The Donald.

The joke that went too far.

Will the joke ever get to "President The Donald"?

Well, here is an article that predicts a Republican win in 2016 "because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn’t running."

And they note that Obama's approval rating (in Oct 2015, when the article was written) was rather low (45%) and the model predicted that a successor from the same party (Clinton), would have only a 14% chance of winning the presidency.

However, Obama's approval rating has been going up. He noted at the WHCD, that the last time he was this high, he was deciding on his major. It is currently at about 52%, and that predicts that Clinton almost has probably a better than 30% chance of winning. If Obama's approval rises to 55%, Clinton's chance will be about 49%. So even this model which predicted a Republican win then (Oct 2015), may become a prediction for a Democrat win if Obama's approval exceeds 55%.

The "
13 Keys system" (which I believe is more robust) predicted a Democrat win since Nov 2014. The Feb 2016 update/review still holds for a Democrat win. Under this system, there are 13 True/
False questions, and if there are 6 or more "false", then the incumbent party loses. So far, by the author's reckoning, there are 5 "false". However, if circumstances changes (e.g. economic growth stall and slips into recession - Key #5), or if the interpretation or answer is wrong (e.g. Key #11 - major foreign policy success - interpreted the Iran deal as a policy success. And so answered "True" for this key. But that is arguably an expert assessment and evaluation of the deal. Is the assessment of this key (and all the other keys) based on a factual assessment, or dependent on the perception of the voters? In other words, objectively, it may be true. But public perception may not align with the objective truth? Would it matter?

Well, I believe that objective assessment should hold, but that's my perspective. And perhaps "public perception" is simply the view of the vocal minority and does not reflect the views of the silent majority. If so, it will be the Democratic candidate for President.

Being the perverse contrarian that I sometimes am, however, I would like The Donald to win.

For three reasons.

Firstly, because the Republican Party of the US deserves someone like The Donald. Because despite their horror, disbelief, denial, and shame, they have become the party of The Donald.

Secondly, a President Donald would be the best indictment of simple Democracy. Even if he does not get elected as President, the fact that got as far as he has, within spitting distance of the presidency, shows up flaws in the democratic process. At the heart of the democratic process, is populism. And populism is not a good basis for electing good government.

Thirdly, God. For those who chose The Donald, I think they would think that God has answered their prayers. For the rest, they can ask, "Why God? Why?" And "if God truly loves us, how could he let Trump happen?" Which was what Colbert asked on The Late Show.

Oh wait. There is a fourth reason from watching Colbert - "Trump might be President" sex. A.K.A. "End of the World" sex.

But I guess I just want The Donald to win, like I wanted Chee to win.

Cos I'm a closet anarchist?

[See also: 
In this latest update, Obama's approval is 53%]

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